Courtesy of MGM Mirage. Bold denotes team made playoffs in 2007:  

Patriots: 3-1
Colts: 11-2
Cowboys: 11-2
Chargers: 7-1
Giants: 8-1
Jaguars: 10-1
Steelers: 12-1
Seahawks: 12-1
Browns: 15-1
Eagles: 15-1
Vikings: 15-1
Bears: 15-1
Packers: 20-1
Saints: 22-1
Buccaneers: 25-1
Jets: 25-1
Redskins: 25-1
Broncos: 25-1
Ravens: 30-1
Titans: 30-1
Bengals: 40-1
Cardinals: 40-1
Texans: 40-1
Panthers: 50-1
Rams: 50-1
Bills: 50-1
Raiders: 60-1
Lions: 60-1
Dolphins: 60-1
Niners: 60-1
Chiefs: 80-1
Falcons: 125-1

To me, the two most significant moves of the offseason to date have been the Patriots' re-signing of WR Randy Moss and the Vikings' trade for Chiefs DE Jared Allen. The Moss re-signing means the Patriots' offense again has the ability to be special. If they don't win the AFC East by daylight, it would be a major upset.

The Allen trade isn't quite on the level of Moss' return; Moss is a Hall of Fame talent, while Allen has a ways to go before we start using that adjective to speak of him. But Allen was, without a doubt, the best pass rusher in football last season, and perhaps the best defensive player in the game.

Now he joins a defensive line that stuffs the run like nobody's business but wasn't a top-flight QB-pressuring group.

Now it is, especially if another D-end, perhaps Ray Edwards, steps up, too.

How are you going to run on the Vikings? Passing on them has been the way to go, but any improvement in that area would make Minnesota's defense all the more tough.

In my view, they are in good position to grab at least a wild-card spot, and maybe more, in the NFC.

At last check, the Over/Under on Vikings' wins at the Venetian was 8, and bettors only had to lay -105 if they wanted to bet on Minnesota to make the playoffs. I'd have to think sharp bettors would have to like the Vikings' postseason chances a little more after Allen was added to the fold.    

Yesterday, one of the younger editors remarked that his friends were going to be in Las Vegas for the NFL Draft. My first impression was, the draft is in New York, and you cannot bet on the draft in Las Vegas as is.

But my second thought was, how brilliant. The  NBA and NHL playoffs are in full swing, as is early-season baseball, but I would doubt the sports book will be too crowded. (It also helps that the horse-racing slate is far from compelling, too, what with the Kentucky Derby still a week away.) I can see it now: the NFL Draft on one of the big screens at Caesars, or the Mirage, or the Venetian. If the 10 minutes between picks is too much for you to bear, play a little blackjack and come back. The hometown team will be on the clock soon enough.

Yes, brilliant.

This is the second in an occasional series on pro football proposition bets offered throughout Las Vegas: 

The Venetian Las Vegas has installed LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson as the favorites to capture pro football’s rushing title in 2008. Tomlinson and Peterson are 7-2 to rack up the most rushing yards in the ’08 season.

Tomlinson led the NFL in rushing last season, racking up 1,474 yards on 315 carries. Peterson was second with 1,341 yards, but he averaged almost a yard more per carry than Tomlinson and missed a pair of games with a knee injury.

Colts RB Joseph Addai (1,071 rushing yards in ’07) and Rams RB Steven Jackson (1,002 yards) are the co-third choices at 6-1. Addai plays in one of the league’s most potent offenses, while Jackson’s ’07 production came over only nine games because of an ankle injury.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson, who missed much of last season with a foot injury, is 10-1 He gained only 559 yards in eight starts.

Four other backs are 15-1 or less: Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker (12-1; 1,316 yards in ’07); Cleveland’s Jamal Lewis (15-1; 1,304 yards), Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook (15-1; 1,333 yards); Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch (15-1; 1,115 yards).

The likeliest winner out of this group: Tomlinson. The Chargers are going to have a lot of leads this season owing to a weak division.

Others to watch: Jackson, who will make a run at the title if he can stay healthy; and Parker, provided he comes back strong from a broken fibula suffered in Week 16.

Suspect contender: Addai, given the Colts’ strong passing game.

Longshots to keep an eye on: Packers RB Ryan Grant at 18-1 (averaged 92.9 yards rushing in 10 starts; his yards per game statistic is weighed down by five early-season appearances that netted only 30 rushing yards); Giants RB Brandon Jacobs at 25-1 ( averaged 91.7 yards per game, third-best in the league behind Peterson and Tomlinson).

Rookie odds, per the Venetian: Darren McFadden: 30-1; Jonathan Stewart (listed as ‘James’ on the sheet I have): 80-1; Rashard Mendenhall: 80-1; Chris Johnson: 100-1; Felix Jones: 100-1.

This is the first of a series of occasional looks at the various pro-football props offered throughout Las Vegas.

The Venetian has put out its odds for the 2008-09 "Pro Football Most Receiving Yards" proposition bet.

The favorite: Colts WR Reggie Wayne, who led the NFL with 1,510 receiving yards a season ago. Wayne is 5-1 to repeat as receiving-yards champion.

The other favorites, in order of their odds. 2007 receiving yards are in parentheses:

Bengals WR Chad Johnson (1.440): 6-1
Patriots WR Randy Moss (1,493): 8-1
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (1,409): 8-1
Panthers WR Steve Smith (1,002): 8-1
Cowboys WR Terrell Owens (1,355): 8-1

Here's the second tier of contenders, all with odds 12-to-15-1:

Broncos WR Brandon Marshall (1,325): 12-1
Colts WR Marvin Harrison (247): 15-1
Lions WR Roy Williams (838): 15-1
Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (853): 15-1
Rams WR Torry Holt (1,189): 15-1

Three WRs check in at 18-1: Houston's Andre Johnson (851 yards in '07), New Orleans' Marques Colston (1,202) and Cleveland's Braylon Edwards (1,289).

Thirty-six other betting interests, including a Field wager at 15-1, are offered.

Any thoughts, let me know in the comments.

The Las Vegas Sun had an interesting piece today on Art Manteris, who runs the race and sports book operations for Station Casinos. Manteris believes the sports books of today are much better run and are much better for the betting public than they were years ago. Obviously, there are bettors who might disagree with this, but it's a good read all the same.

Back tomorrow with some NFL props talk.

I have made four March trips to Las Vegas. My first was in 2003. I had been working six months at PFW. I lived at my parents' house rent-free. Marriage wasn't yet in the cards. Flights to Vegas were still relatively cheap, especially if you didn't mind stopping in Dallas on the way there and in Atlanta on the way back.

So off I went. Stayed at the Rio. There was a place right next to the sports book that sold $2 slices of pizza. That took care of lunch, and sometimes dinner. I learned that six-team parlays are too often dead after one game to be a reliable form of retirement income.

Three more March trips followed, each on the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. They got progressively more expensive. We set up shop at The Mirage; no $2 pizza there. The dreaded extra trip to the ATM was made once ... or twice, but I had as much fun as I've ever had in my life on those trips. In '05, there was Illinois over Arizona; if not at the Allstate Arena itself, I can't think of a better place to have watched that game. The following year, it was UCLA, looking hopelessly out of it, coming back to nail Gonzaga on the wire. And UConn, trying to become the first team to sleep-walk into the Final Four. And failing.

Of that last group of friends that made the trip in '06, four will be in my wedding this August.

I shall return one of these springs, but not this one. But I'll see some of those guys in the weeks to come, and we will tell our tales of trips past.

A toast to that.

From Dave Tuley's sports-betting feature in the Daily Racing Form (registration required):

"During football season, a lot of discussion goes on in the sports books about how much a player is worth to the point spread. Just like in baseball where the starting pitcher has the most impact on the odds, the starting quarterback carries the most weight in football handicapping. If the first-string quarterback is injured, you have to determine not only how good he is but also the depth of the dropoff to the backup. In some cases the line might move a touchdown or more while in other cases it might just be a few points.

"Brett Favre started 275 consecutive games for the Green Bay Packers and was rarely even considered "questionable" on the league's injury reports. He retired this week, and now we know how much he was worth in future-book odds.

"On Monday afternoon, the Hilton had the Packers at 14-1 to win the Super Bowl. After the team announced his retirement on Tuesday morning, the Hilton [adjusted] the odds to 25-1 on the assumption that relatively untested four-year backup Aaron Rodgers will take over the starting job."

Stephen Nover of VegasInsider.com, who knows as much about NFL futures wagers as any writer I've seen, predicted today that he expects the Las Vegas Sports Consultants to adjust the Packers' 2009 title odds from 7- to 15-1 in the wake of Brett Favre's retirement. LVSC advises the majority of Nevada casinos on pointspreads and futures wagers. Nover also expects LVSC to set the Over/Under on Packers wins at 8 or 9 when that prop is set.

If the O/U is eight, the "Over" might be tempting; the Packers don't play in an especially strong division, and their overall talent level is still good. 8½ might be the number that draws the most interest on both sides; the Packers are popular with the betting public, but some may look to fade Green Bay now that QB Aaron Rodgers will be counted upon as a 16-game starter. But it's only March, and the perception of the Packers can still change. And it will largely depend upon the early odds the sports books set.   

One thing I'm sure of: 15-1 on Green Bay to win the first Super Bowl of the post-Favre era isn't a good value.  

Hello, all. Good to be back. Took some time off after the Super Bowl, which included a short jaunt to Las Vegas. While there, I stopped by the Venetian sports book, perhaps the best one I've been in on account of the way it's set up (plenty of seating and TVs in beautiful surroundings) and the friendly service. And their futures bets are always top-notch, like the 2009 pro football playoff odds they've already put out. 

As expected, the Patriots are heavy favorites to return to the playoffs; were you to wager on New England making the postseason next year, you would have to lay $100 to win $10. Were you to select the Patriots to miss the playoffs, you would lay $100 to potentially win $600.

Here were the odds (as of Feb. 4 -- some may have changed, obviously) on some other teams of interest:

Giants: "Yes": -160 ($160 to win $100)

           "No": + 130 ($100 to win $130)

Packers: Yes: -250
             No: +200

Cowboys: Yes: -270

              No: +210

Seahawks: Yes: -200

                No: -170

Other NFC odds (Yes/No): Eagles: +130/-160; Redskins: +200/-250; Vikings: -140/+110; Lions: +190/-240; Bears: +140/-170; Saints: -130/+100; Panthers: -105/-125; Buccaneers: -120/-110; Falcons: +450/-700; Cardinals: +110/-140; Rams: +150/-180; Niners: +180/-220. 

AFC

Colts: Yes: -330

        No: +250

Chargers: Yes: -300

              No: +220

Jaguars: Yes: -180

             No: +150
 

Other AFC odds: (Yes/No): Bills: +220/-300; Jets: +250/-300; Dolphins: +450/-700; Steelers: -180/+150; Browns: -130/+100; Bengals: +140/-170; Ravens: +200/-250; Titans: +130/-160; Texans: +190/-240; Broncos: +110/-140; Raiders: +280/-360; Chiefs: -280/+360