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Passing on the Bills...

In recent weeks, I've begun to take a closer look at the picks I've made as PFW's handicapping columnist in the last three seasons. I've gotten through most of the data, and I expect to be finished with my analysis before the season. When I finish, I'll be happy to share what I've found. The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: I'd like to have a better idea of what I am good at (and not so good at), and having such data can only make for more interesting columns — and, hopefully, better picks.

One of my goals was to learn how I've fared picking certain teams over the last three years. That I didn't keep this information all of this time was a mistake — while I spend hours each week breaking down each game, I have not spent nearly enough time taking a macro view of my handicapping. This is somehing I will try to fix this season with improved record-keeping. 

Some of what I've found has confirmed what I've already suspected. For instance, I've had an affinity for picking Steelers games the last two years. Now, I can cite a 6-1 ATS record to prove it. 

But I've also learned a couple of surprising things, too. For one, I am 5-0 ATS picking the Chargers the last two years. Four of those wins came last season, when it was a season-long struggle to make good picks.

Perhaps more San Diego selections would have given my sagging record the boost it needed.

On the flipside, I've been awful picking Bears games — 1-5 the last two years. And the one cover was by a half-point. 

But now to the reason I'm writing. In my analysis, I've learned that the only team I haven't picked to cover the last two years is ... the Buffalo Bills. Now, I have picked against Buffalo a handful of times, but I have not made the Bills a column selection since taking them as three-point underdogs at Oakland on Oct. 23, 2005.    

The Raiders rolled, 38-17.

Now, I had completely forgotten about that game until today, so I doubt it had any effect on me avoiding Buffalo since. Nor have I systematically decided to pick a Buffalo game only if I were to play against the Bills. So I don't have an answer as to why this has happened.

But it got me to thinking: Are there any of you out there who have an affinity for seizing the moment when the Bills are primed for a big performance? Let me know in the comments. As you know, I love a good Vegas story.

And I don't mind the Bills, either, in spite of my (nonexistent) record the last two years.  

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on June 13, 2008 2:10 PM.

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