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Here's to hoping you didn't make that Super Bowl wager on the Packers ...

Stephen Nover of VegasInsider.com, who knows as much about NFL futures wagers as any writer I've seen, predicted today that he expects the Las Vegas Sports Consultants to adjust the Packers' 2009 title odds from 7- to 15-1 in the wake of Brett Favre's retirement. LVSC advises the majority of Nevada casinos on pointspreads and futures wagers. Nover also expects LVSC to set the Over/Under on Packers wins at 8 or 9 when that prop is set.

If the O/U is eight, the "Over" might be tempting; the Packers don't play in an especially strong division, and their overall talent level is still good. 8½ might be the number that draws the most interest on both sides; the Packers are popular with the betting public, but some may look to fade Green Bay now that QB Aaron Rodgers will be counted upon as a 16-game starter. But it's only March, and the perception of the Packers can still change. And it will largely depend upon the early odds the sports books set.   

One thing I'm sure of: 15-1 on Green Bay to win the first Super Bowl of the post-Favre era isn't a good value.  

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on March 5, 2008 6:06 PM.

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