August 8, 2008

Updated Super Bowl XLIII odds

Here are updated Super Bowl odds courtesy of MGM Mirage (as of July 28) and Caesars Palace (August 1). Odds are subject to change and already have in the case of the Jets and Packers, as documented in this space on Thursday.

I have highlighted teams where there is a difference of three odds points or more between the casino chains. As I have said, it pays to shop around in Las Vegas. Walking the Strip in the hot sun is a wonderful thing, and you could probably use the exercise.

I'll be back later today with a breakdown of an undervalued Super Bowl longshot. Without further adieu, the odds:

Team

Caesars/Harrah'sMGM Mirage  
Patriots  7-23-1  
Chargers  5-111-2  
Colts  4-15-1  
Cowboys 7-29-2  
Jaguars  8-110-1  
Packers  10-110-1  
Steelers 8-110-1  
Vikings7-110-1  
Giants  12-112-1  
Seahawks15-112-1  
Bears  18-119-1  
Browns  18-115-1  
Eagles  15-115-1  
Saints15-113-1  
Jets 30-115-1  
Buccaneers22-116-1  
Broncos35-125-1  
Redskins22-128-1  
Raiders45-135-1  
Ravens50-130-1  
Panthers35-135-1  
Bengals45-140-1  
Texans60-140-1  
Cardinals45-160-1  
Titans45-145-1  
Bills55-150-1  
Dolphins100-175-1  
49ers80-150-1  
Rams50-150-1  
Lions70-160-1  
Chiefs100-180-1  
Falcons 200-1125-1  
 

 

August 7, 2008

How two Las Vegas casinos responded to the Favre trade

You might have guessed the Jets' Super Bowl odds were going to drop after the acquisition of Brett Favre, and you would be correct.

The Jets, who were 20-1 to win Super Bowl XLIII earlier this week at the MGM Mirage family of casinos, are now 15-1. The Jets were 75-1 in January, but a strong offseason and their long-standing popularity with the betting public made them a popular longshot choice to win the title. "We already had quite a bit of liability on the Jets," MGM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood said Thursday.

Rood also adjusted the Over-Under on the Jets' wins from seven to eight. So did Chuck Esposito, the assistant vice president of race and sports at Caesars Palace, which is part of the Harrah's family of casinos. Esposito also dropped the Jets' Super Bowl odds from 50-1 to 30-1. 

Both casinos left the Packers' win total at eight.

"The question mark is (Aaron) Rodgers," Esposito said of the Packers. "With Favre, we would have moved that (total) to nine."

Esposito also adjusted the "vig," or the odds bettors had to lay to take the Over on the Packers. Before the trade, those who wanted who bet the Packers to win more than eight games had to lay minus-160, or bet $16 to win $10. Those odds have dropped to minus-140.

However, Rood took a different approach, raising the vig on the Over to minus-120 and suggesting the Packers could benefit from the end of the Favre saga.

Caesars, which dropped the Packers' Super Bowl odds to 10-1 when it appeared Favre would return, has moved that number to the 20- or 22-1 range, Esposito said. The Packers' Super Bowl odds remain 10-1 at the Mirage properties.

 

August 6, 2008

Preseason Over-Unders are on the low side...

If you are convinced the opening week of the preseason will be a high-scoring one, the market is in your favor at present. Only two games — Buffalo at Washington at New Orleans at Arizona — have Over/Unders as high as 36½. The Bills-Redskins total has been bet up after Washington beat Indianapolis 30-16 in the Hall of Fame game on Sunday. Redskins No.3 QB Colt Brennan completed 9-of-10 throws for 123 yards and two TDs, so you could see why some opportunistic bettors have decided to see if Brennan can build off of that in his second pro appearance on Saturday.

As for New Orleans-Arizona, I think that total comes down to these factors: the Saints' potent offense and the Cardinals having two starter-caliber quarterbacks. Another issue bettors may keep in mind: Arizona's eight return TDs last season. In the preseason, predicting where the points might come from is not easy. So betting the Over takes research ... and perhaps hopes of a blocked field goal being returned for a touchdown.

August 5, 2008

The Boller Effect?

On Tuesday, the Ravens named QB Kyle Boller as their starter for Thursday's game at New England.

Bettors responded by taking the Ravens and the points. New England, which opened as a 5.5-point favorite, is now a four-point favorite. Boller is expected to play most of the first half. Those backing Baltimore have to like the fact that 1) Boller is playing for his job and 2) has cut down on his mistakes early in training camp. Some bettors may also like that Boller played a decent game vs. New England last December, when the Ravens, 19-point home underdogs, pushed the Patriots to the limit before falling 27-24.

August 3, 2008

The season(s) begin...

The pro football season kicks off this evening. And, by extension, the pro football betting season starts too. Anyways, the Redskins are 4-to-5-point favorites vs. the Colts, who will not have QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison (though it's not as if they were going to play much anyways).

Many handicappers are likely to stay away from the preseason, but there is a school of thought that there's an opportunity to make a score. I also took a look at the subject in this 2006 piece.

And no, I have no opinion on Colts-Redskins.

 

 

July 24, 2008

Sixteen NFC handicapping stats and trends...

Following up on yesterday's AFC handicapping tip sheet, here's 16 NFC stats / trends to keep in mind as handicappers prepare for the coming season. Facts that were especially interesting to me are in bold:   

Arizona: The Cardinals are 12-8-1 against the spread as an underdog in the last two seasons (5-3-1 ATS in '07).

Atlanta: Those who played the Over in the Falcons' last seven games in 2007 cashed every time.

Carolina: Panthers are just 6-10 ATS in the last two seasons.

Chicago: Fourteen of the Bears' last 18 home games have gone Over the total.

Dallas: The Cowboys failed to cover in their last five games last season.

Detroit: The Lions' last six games in '07 went Over.

Green Bay: Packers posted a 7-2-1 ATS home mark in '07 after going 6-17-2 ATS at Lambeau the previous three seasons.

Minnesota: Six of the Vikings' eight home games went Over.

New Orleans: Saints are just 5-12 ATS at home the last two seasons.

N.Y. Giants: The defending champions were 10-1 ATS in road / neutral games but only 4-4 ATS at home in '07.

Philadelphia: Including playoffs, the Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home.

St. Louis: The Rams were 5-11 ATS last season and are 19-29 ATS since 2005.

San Francisco: The Niners were 5-10 ATS as an underdog last season after posting an 8-5 mark in that role in '06.

Seattle: Seahawks were 7-2 ATS at home last season.

Tampa Bay: The Bucs failed to cover as a favorite in their final three games in '07.

Washington: Four of the Redskins' five games on artificial turf last season went Over. However, only four of their 12 games on grass went Over the total.

July 23, 2008

One good handicapping stat for all 16 AFC teams...

Christmas, Christmas time is here.

Yes, Jim Feist's 2008 Football Workbook has arrived at PFW world headquarters. So it has been a happy, happy day for yours truly. This contains 10 years of against the spread and Over/Under results for every NFL team and every major college football team you can think of.

I've been thumbing through the book all morning, and here's one handicapping tidbit for each of the 16 American Football Conference member clubs. I bolded the especially interesting ones:  

Baltimore: The Ravens were 3-13 against the spread last season and did not cover a SINGLE road game.

Buffalo: The Bills are a robust 11-5 ATS at home in the last two seasons.

Cincinnati: Five of Cincinnati's last six games last season went Under the total.

Cleveland: The Browns were 12-3 ATS in Derek Anderson's starts last season, including a perfect 7-0 at home.

Denver: The Broncos are 5-15 ATS as a favorite in the last two seasons.

Houston: This club was 6-2 ATS at home but 2-6 on the road in '07.

Indianapolis: Colts have failed to cover in four of their last five home games.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars' last 12 games have gone Over the total.  

Kansas City: Chiefs were a feeble 1-6-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium last season.

Miami: Dolphins are 10-29-1 ATS at home since 2003.

New England: The Pats failed to cover in their last six last season.

N.Y. Jets: They were 0-3-1 as favorites last season.

Oakland: The Raiders haven't covered as a favorite since Week Eight of the 2005 season.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers' last four games in '07 went Over the total, and all cleared the mark by double digits.

San Diego: Chargers covered their last nine games in '07.

Tennessee: Titans covered just three of eight at home last season.

July 18, 2008

Updated Super Bowl XLII odds: Here comes the Pack; plenty of room on that Tennessee bandwagon

Courtesy MGM Mirage (as of July 15):

Patriots: 3-1
Chargers: 11-2
Colts: 13-2
Cowboys: 11-2
Jaguars: 8-1
Packers: 10-1
Steelers: 10-1
Vikings: 10-1
Giants: 12-1
Seahawks: 12-1
Bears: 15-1
Browns: 15-1
Eagles: 15-1
Saints: 15-1
Jets: 20-1
Buccaneers: 24-1
Broncos: 25-1
Redskins: 28-1
Raiders: 30-1
Ravens: 30-1
Panthers: 35-1
Bengals: 40-1
Texans: 40-1
Cardinals: 45-1
Titans: 45-1
Bills: 50-1
Dolphins: 50-1
49ers: 50-1
Rams: 50-1
Lions: 60-1
Chiefs: 80-1
Falcons: 125-1

Note the drop in the Packers' Super Bowl odds; the Mirage had them at 20-1 to win the title in May. I guess this has something to do with their potentially improved QB depth, no?

Also, the Giants continue to get no love. The Cowboys, Vikings and Cowboys all have lower odds to win the title.  

The Colts' price would figure to float up if there are any questions whatsoever about Peyton Manning's status for the opening weeks of the season. Their odds remain unchanged from late May.  

Only three playoff teams from a season ago -- Tampa Bay (24-1), Washington (28-1) and Tennessee (45-1) -- are lower than 12-1 on the line. In horse betting terms, the Titans are dead on the board; they opened at 30-1 and have floated up to their curent price.  

You might finally be able to use that cell phone in the sports book...

It's happened to many a Las Vegas sports book first-timer: You take a call on your cell phone only to be interrupted by a casino staffer and told you have to use your phone outside the book. The reason? Nevada gaming law.

Well, that law might be changing. From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

"The decades-old ban was enacted to keep betting lines from being transmitted outside the state and to discourage layoff wagering by illegal bookmakers inside Nevada casinos. However, casino representatives want to end the prohibition because of the advent of Internet sports books and the countless number of Web sites that transmit sports wagering information."

From a convenience standpoint, this would be a great change. It would be nice to answer the phone without taking a brisk walk out of the book.

July 10, 2008

Of Art Rooney and of horses...

Have to say that my Wednesday column was a joy to write, given my love of NFL history and horse racing. I am guilty of getting lost in the old bound volumes of our publication on occasion. I have read of Bill Belichick's football library; oh, to read some of those books.

This game has a colorful past, as this Pittsburgh Post-Gazette points out, and the writer does a good job of giving a rundown of the various gambling-related ties some had in the early days of the NFL. You can't write a proper history of Pittsburgh's NFL franchise without mentioning Art Rooney's Empire City / Saratoga run; you just can't.

Certainly these are different times; I doubt we are going to read an account of an NFL owner's big day at the windows at Saratoga anytime soon. And if said owner did, say, take down the Pick Six on Travers day, it would hardly be enough money to draw our interest, and it might not even make a difference in the heart rate of the bettor in question.

In an unrelated story, I think Art Rooney would have really enjoyed this race.

 

 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mike WilkeningPFW senior editor Mike Wilkening has kept PFW’s handicapping blog since its inception in 2005. Wilkening also authors various features on handicapping history, theory and trends for PFW’s print edition and web site. He offers his top plays of the week in PFW’s handicapping column, which runs every Friday on ProFootballWeekly.com during the NFL season. During basketball season, Wilkening is the co-host of the nationally syndicated Pro Football Weekly and Basketball News radio show.

Wilkening is not a professional handicapper, though he would gladly play one on television for little or no money or perhaps even just a vague promise of toll change and the validation of his parking. He regularly talks to oddsmakers and handicappers, and he is a voracious reader of all things NFL handicapping. It is his honor and pleasure to be paid to do this.