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November 2007 Archives

November 2, 2007

The Not-So-Marvelous dilemma

The doctors say he can go. Marv says he wants to go. Dungy says he could go, if it were a playoff game, but maybe he shouldn't, because it's not. So what in the world do fantasy owners do with Marvin Harrison in Week 9?

What makes this decision so difficult is that Harrison has so little track record with injury that we simply don't know how he plays through them. He hasn't missed multiple games in the same season since 1998 and has only two DNPs in the eight seasons since. He's been the model of fantasy consistency, recording at least 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of those eight campaigns. 

And that's what makes this statement so difficult: Even if he's active, I don't think you use him unless you're absolutely desperate. As in, Devery Henderson or Ashley Lelie desperate.

Look, Harrison has suited up and attempted to play in one game since bruising his knee. That was good for three catches, 16 yards and a lot of watching from the sideline. Dungy has already said that if he does play, Marv will be on a play count. One wrong step and he could be ruled out the rest of the game. And he just so happens to be facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. You may have heard of them.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Marv does give it a go on Sunday. He's the football equivalent of a gym rat, and he's got to be just dying to get in this Super Bowl XLII.5. But just because he's in the Colts' lineup doesn't mean he has to be in yours.  

 

November 6, 2007

Don't underestimate RB Kolby Smith in LJ's stead

At this point, it seems fairly clear that Larry Johnson has sustained a relatively serious foot injury. Most reports only go as far as saying he'll miss at least one game, while more aggressive sources are suggesting he's done for the season. Those of us who own Johnson in fantasy leagues have no choice but to assume the worst.

Priest Holmes, of early millenium fame, may or may not be available. Obviously, given his track record -- he is the Chiefs' all-time leading rusher -- Holmes will get the first crack at replacing Johnson. But head coach Herm Edwards has already made little secret that Holmes, after years away from the game, isn't exactly ready to handle a full load.

Enter Kolby Smith, a rookie fifth-rounder who has good size and turned some heads in the preseason, rushing 20 times for 70 yards and catching three passes for 25 yards. Edwards didn't hesitate to mention that Smith would share the load with Holmes, and those who don't have a chance at Holmes should act accordingly.

There are two things to consider here. First, Holmes is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. He'll almost certainly be over-extended, and he was starting to break down back in 2005. Second, things in K.C. could unravel quickly without L.J., and Smith could get an extended look down the stretch.

Look, this isn't the KC offense of years past; they don't have the Hall of Fame offensive line that paved the way for Holmes and Johnson to become top-five fantasy picks. However, as we've learned from Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, Ron Dayne and Kenny Watson, a back getting carries is a back worth owning.

November 10, 2007

Colts, Seahawks injuries leave fantasy owners in shambles

Injuries are always a huge factor when setting your weekly fantasy lineup, but this week's schedule puts owners in an even bigger lurch than usual. Week 10 presents us with the usual dose of game-time decisions, but the fact that several of them fall in the Sunday and Monday night prime-time affairs puts owners in a terrible situation. Specifically, if Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Deion Branch are ruled out, chances are most of your bench options will have already played. Thus, you have to ask yourself: can you really afford to wait to see if they are active? Well, let's look at them on a case-by-case basis.

1. Colts WR Marvin Harrison: Marv has missed the last two games, and the better part of four overall, with his knee injury, so it's clearly not a minor injury. You could wait and see if Marv is listed as active and starting on Sunday night, especially if you're desperate at wideout, but you cannot afford to not have a backup ready to go in the event he's not dressing. Your options are fairly limited since the only teams still playing will be Indy, San Diego, Seattle and San Fran. If you have Chris Chambers, Bobby Engram, or D.J. Hackett, you're in fine shape. Other than that, your options are pretty lackluster, including Nate Burleson, Vincent Jackson, Arnaz Battle and Darrell Jackson. If those are your only free-agent options -- and don't forget you may have to add them to your roster before the early kickoffs -- I'd probably lean toward blowing Marv off and using your best early-game reserve. After all, let's not forget that Marv is no lock to play every snap and produce even if he is active.

2. Colts TE Dallas Clark: Clark missed Wednesday and Thursday workouts with a concussion but did participate in limited fashion on Friday. If this weren't a late game, it would be far less problematic. But if Clark is ruled out, you're left with options such as Colts backup TE Ben Utecht and Seahawks TE Will Heller. Seeing that, if you carry two TEs and have a nice play ready to go like Heath Miller or Greg Olsen, I would recommend that. If you're looking at a Utecht-level play either way, I'd roll the dice on Clark and resort to Utecht if necessary. 

3. Seahawks WR Deion Branch: With a Monday nighter on tap, the Seahawks get a chance to work Branch out on Saturday, and he did participate in limited fashion on Friday for the first time since sustaining his foot injury. He's likely to be a game-time decision, but two workouts would indicate to me that he'll be ready. If your lineup has produced without Branch the last month, I wouldn't mess with waiting on Branch. But if you're desperate, I don't mind the gamble, especially if you can add a Burleson, Jackson or Battle and have them waiting in the wings just in case. 

November 14, 2007

Brandon Jacobs, Yardage Back?

Only in this wacky, unpredictable and often preposterous game of fantasy football could Giants RB Brandon Jacobs, a short-yardage and touchdown machine in his first two season, be transformed into something more closely resembling Kevin Faulk, a between-the-20s yardage fiend.

In two seasons as a backup, Jacobs was a Tiki Barber owner's nightmare, showing up only inside the five-yard line to vulture touchdowns after Tiki carried the team to the stripe. Jacobs scored seven times on a mere 38 touches as a rookie and reprised that role with nine scores on 96 carries last season.

Coming into this year, Jacobs was handed the starting role, although no one knew how he'd handle a full workload, taking hits over 20-plus carries, catching passes out of the backfield, protecting his passer, etc. Well, since returning from a knee injury he sustained early in Week One, he's been outstanding in that regard. In the five full games he's played, he's posted 103.8 yards per game, a total that over the course of the season only Adrian Peterson bests. 

On the other hand, the one thing we were sure of, was that he'd get the money balls and convert them. Or maybe not. The man who was unstoppable at the goal line in his first two seasons as a specialist has two touchdowns and has been outright replaced at the stripe by journeyman Reuben Droughns, who has doubled Jacobs up with his four scores. 

Jacobs' owners would love nothing more than to blame Tom Coughlin, but in fairness, the Giants rank sixth in rushing and eighth in scoring, so it's tough to call Coughlin out and even tougher to expect it to be fixed if it ain't broken. 

And thus we're left to pray that Jacobs can break a long one so that the beast can reach paydirt every now and then...who woulda thunk it? 

November 17, 2007

Fantasy backfields a downright mess

In Week 11, the list of fantasy backs either out, doubtful or questionable is longer than an Adrian Peterson scoring scamper. In addition to Peterson, arguably fantasy's most valuable back this season, Larry Johnson and Ahman Green have already been ruled out. Marshawn Lynch, Travis Henry, and Shaun Alexander look pretty much unusable, as do question marks such as Kevin Jones and Earnest Graham. Lineup stalwarts Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Willie Parker and LenDale White all look like they'll suit up, although they all missed workouts this week with their respective ailments.

What does it all mean for fantasy owners in must-win situations in Week 11? In most case, I'll opt for the safe play, unless there's a dramatic difference between the two options. That is, if I'm deciding between Earnest Graham and Jesse Chatman, I'll play the healthier player, even if Graham's matchup or offense is better. On the other hand, if it's Westbrook vs. Chatman, that's a different story. If Westbrook is active, his upside is just too significant to pass on.

Also consider your exact situation: your record, your opponent, the rest of your lineup, etc. That is, if you're playing the league's worst team and know you don't need a monster day from your back, playing it safe and penciling in a handful of points from a guy like Chatman or Warrick Dunn is the prescription. If you're playing the highest-scoring team in your league and your matchups at receiver and quarterback look terrible, well then it may just take a herculean effort from Westbrook to earn the W.

November 25, 2007

Don't hesitate to start Chiefs RB Kolby Smith in Week 12

Across the country, hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners are asking themselves the same question this morning: "Am I really going to start Kolby Smith with my fantasy season on the line?"

The answer should be yes. Admittedly,the fifth-round rookie has done next to nothing this year, with only 10 carries, 19 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. Even in the two games sans Larry Johnson, Smith had only 15 total touches behind Priest Holmes.

However, Smith is the man today for the Chiefs, who will be without both Johnson and Holmes. Does that make you feel comfortable enough? Considering you've likely seen zero of this Kolby character, you probably need more persuasion. Well, here it is:

The even better news is that his 20-plus touches will come against the lowly Oakland Raiders. They rank 31st in the NFL in rushing defenses, allowing 153 yards per game on the ground and a league-worst 16 rushing touchdowns. But here's the kicker: It hasn't taken an All-Pro to make opportunities count against the Raiders this season. Check out this list of backs' production vs. Oakland:

Week 11: Chester Taylor (167 yards, 3 TDs)
Week 10: Cedric Benson (89 yards, 1 TD)
Week 9: Ron Dayne (122 yards, 1 TD); Ahman Green (81 total yards, 1 TD)
Week 8: LenDale White (133 yards); Chris Henry (48 yards, 1 TD)
Week 7: Larry Johnson (112 yards,  1 TD)
Week 6: LT (198 yards, 4 TDs)
Week 4: Ronnie Brown (207 total yards, 1 TD)
Week 3: Jamal Lewis (78 total yards)
Week 2: Travis Henry (128 yards)
Week 1: Tatum Bell (87 yards, 1 TD)

Chester Taylor? Ron Dayne? Tatum Bell? Clearly, it doesn't take a fantasy stud to produce against this defense. Start Kolby with confidence.  

November 27, 2007

Giants backfield a fantasy nightmare

You'd never have guessed it in August, but on Sunday, the Giants have themselves a patsy fantasy matchups against the Teddy Bear defense in Chicago. One look at what the Broncos -- specifically Andre Hall, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler -- did last week in inclement weather against the Bears is all you need to know to understand just how far this once-elite defense has fallen.

Unfortunately, for fantasy owners invested in the Giants' backfield, it's going to be impossible to tell just which of their productive runners will have the best shot at running roughshod over the Cubby Bears. Brandon Jacobs looks like a no-go with his hamstring injury, but Derrick Ward is expected to return to practice, while Reuben Droughns remains the healthiest and safest play considering the rhythm he's in. 

Having said that, Ward was a dual-purpose beast in Jacobs' stead earlier this season, and if ready, is the more dynamic player than Droughns. On the other hand, Droughns has been taking the shorties at the stripe ever since Jacobs went down in Week 1 and continued to do so even while Jacobs was churning out 100-yard games.

Practice is going to tell us virtually nothing in this case. Jacobs may do some work by the end of the week, but it will likely be in anticipation of a Week 14 return.  Ward should do even more work, but that's hardly enough of an indication that he's ready to resume the role of 20 touches per game. Droughns should be the starter, but how many carries will he give up to Ward? 

The only situation in which I can see fantasy owners using a Giants back without hesitation would be if Ward simply isn't ready and is declared inactive, along with Jacobs, on Sunday afternoon, paving the way for Droughns to carry the load. Or if you're in a TD-heavy scoring format, Droughns is certainly worth a look. However, with a Thursday game and a full slate of early Sunday tilts off the board before then, can you really afford to wait for news on Ward and Jacobs?

And you thought the Giants' passing game was a mess.  

 

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About November 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in November 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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