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September 2007 Archives

September 3, 2007

Late-round fliers for your remaining drafts

It's only somewhat true that there's no such thing as a sleeper anymore. To be certain, guys like Vincent Jackson and Santonio Holmes no longer qualify. When you have to spend a mid-round pick on a receiver who hasn't proven much, he's not exactly flying under the radar screen. However, there are still gems to be found in the final few rounds of your drafts; you just have to dig a little deeper. To help you with your shoveling, here are a few names to consider throwing darts at when the cheat sheet reaches its limits:

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger: In most preseason rankings, including our own PFW consensus draft board , Big Ben barely qualifies as a quality fantasy backup. However, prior to his serious accident last summer, the Steelers' signal-caller was cracking fantasy top-10s at his position. He's now put that accident and other injuries that spoiled last year's campaign behind him, has a less conservative offensive coordinator and has looked very comfortable this preseason. He could severely exceed expectations.  

Titans RB LenDale White: I still don't trust the cat and would not feel comfortable heading into the season with him as one of my regular starters. But if White slides down your draft this week, know that he's rebounded quite nicely from a lackluster offseason and is slated to start for the Titans in Week One. Chris Brown is still in the picture, and White is always a candidate to frequent Jeff Fisher's doghouse, but he's a second-rounder who the Titans would love to develop into an Eddie George-type workhorse. Remember, Travis Henry had 1,200 yards and seven scores in this offense a year ago.  

Packers WR James Jones: Few have turned heads since training camp opened as much as Jones has, shining as a third wideout and stepping in ably for Donald Driver (foot). And when a young receiver turns Brett Favre's head, that's significant, because Favre has proven throughout his career that he will turn a favorite target into a regular fantasy factor. 

Patriots WR Wes Welker: Not unlike Favre, Tom Brady knows a pass-catching contributor when he sees one. Welker's notable 2006 season contained only one touchdown, but upgrading from Joey Harrington to Brady is, I would say, significant. Considering the questionable weekly presence of both Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, don't be surprised to see Welker lead the team in catches. Those in point-per-reception scoring formats should bump Welker way up their draft boards. 

Texans TE Owen Daniels: Gary Kubiak has long favored the tight end; this we know from his tenure in Denver. Daniels hauled in 34 passes and scored five times as a rookie, and his offense should be significantly improved with Matt Schaub under center and Ahman Green running the football. If you miss out entirely on the TE class, Daniels is not a shabby fallback plan at all. 

September 6, 2007

Fantasy season is on: Colts-Saints observations

Raise your hand if you thought your fantasy season ended on the Colts' first offensive snap of the season, after Joseph Addai got popped in the gut and did not get up. One hundred twenty-five yards and one touchdown later, your season was back on track. Take a deep breath, and do yourself a favor: go pick up Kenton Keith anyway. No, he's not Addai, but I could probably accrue some fantasy points in this loaded offense. It's a small measure of protection, but hey, it's something. A few other notable fantasy observations:

- It sure is nice to own Colts. Far too often, as we weight all kinds of crazy factors in our draft-day and game-time decisions, it's far too easy to overlook the simple fact that good offenses put points on the board.

- That is, of course, unless you're the Saints, who hardly resembled last year's top-ranked yardage offense. Let's give the Colts some credit, and put their D/ST on your radar screen by the way if you waited til late for that spot. But I'll also say that Reggie Bush seemed a bit indecisive in picking his gaps early. Easy for me to say, but in the first quarter, he appeared to dance a bit rather than hitting holes aggressively and running downhill.

- We're going to hear a lot about Saints CB Jason David after this affair, but let's not forget that the Saints gave up huge plays left and right last year, when David was in Indy. They looked like exactly the same unit, being dashed by the run and beaten downfield. Circle NOR on your fantasy schedule, folks. 

- It shocked me how many people were talking about Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez this week. One four-letter network's talking head went as far as to call his matchup with the Saints' nickel backs as the key matchup of the game. Perhaps an intern should have mentioned that a) the Colts still have Marv and Wayne and b) it was the first game of Gonzo's NFL career. Outcome? Zero catches. 

- I'm no Sean Payton, so I'm not about to diagnose Drew Brees' off night. Let's just call it that, and make Brees the No. 1 entry on our buy low list. It's never too early to target a bargain.  

September 9, 2007

Crayton is season's first big pickup

It's not two games into the NFL season, and already fantasy football has its first major waiver-wire pickup. With the news that Cowboys WR Terry Glenn will be out indefinitely -- and perhaps the entire season -- fourth-year wideout Patrick Crayton becomes an immediate fantasy factor.

Crayton has 70 catches and seven scores in three seasons, 36 and five of which came last year. He's perhaps made more progress in his development than those numbers indicate, but has not had as much an opportunity to demonstrate that in a crowded passing game featuring Terrell Owens, Glenn and TE Jason Witten. However, Crayton will step into the No. 2 role as long as Glenn is sidelined. It's worth noting that the best game of Crayton's career (104 yards, one TD) came in Week 10 of last year, when Glenn was not coincidentally out with a quad injury.

Say what you will about Glenn, but he did catch 70 balls a year ago, leaving Crayton with a tremendous opportunity in a productive offense. Glenn's absence will also provide more chances for Owens and for Witten, who was already being re-emphasized by new Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.  

Long story short, if you're hurting at the receiver spot and looking for a breakout candidate, Crayton's table is set. Should Glenn recover faster than expected, you'll always be able to drop Crayton and move on.

September 10, 2007

Big Blue may be a fantasy abyss

If reports about Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) and QB Eli Manning (shoulder) are indeed true, here's one very real possibility: in the next month, Big Blue may not score as many points as they did against the Cowboys in Week One (35). 

The hunch is that next Sunday against the Packers in their home opener, New York will start Jared Lorenzen under center and Derrick Ward behind him. Say what you will about Eli and Jacobs, but Lorenzen has all of one career pass completion and Ward all of one career touchdown. Both came in desperation duty on Sunday night. 

As explosive as Plaxico Burress looked on Sunday in Dallas in his first career three-TD game, even he would represent a risky fantasy play against a Packer defense that looked awfully good against the Eagles, especially against the pass. Philly's No. 1 receiver, Reggie Brown, caught only one pass, and Donovan McNabb totaled only 184 passing yards. Newsflash: Lorenzen is no McNabb. 

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin insists Eli has not been ruled out, even for Sunday. As optimistic as he may be, and as capable as Derrick Ward looked in filling in for Jacobs against the Cowboys (116 total yards, one TD), I'd use extreme caution in using any and all Giants -- including Plax and TE Jeremy Shockey -- until further notice.   

September 13, 2007

QB change a positive for Browns' Edwards

Perhaps the toughest thing in fantasy football is to stick with a guy who outright busted the previous week. Browns WR Braylon Edwards is one such cat, having posted only 49 yards on three catches in a dismal effort by his Cleveland offense. Do you have the cajones to throw Edwards back out there or are you jumping off that bandwagon after only one week?

I'm here to tell you there's reason to get right back on the horse. First, there is the matchup. Sure, the Bengals' "D" looked outstanding on Monday night against Baltimore, but a tiger doesn't change its stripes, at least not that quickly. It was the season opener, at home, against the defending division champs. I still think over the course of this season, we'll still see the Bengals' unit that alllowed more passing yards than any defense in the NFL last year.

Second, there is Derek Anderson. Yes, I just wrote that. Look, Anderson isn't Peyton Manning, but there is this very salient point: He started four games late last year, and Edwards caught a touchdown in three of them. Braylon also caught all three of his passes last week from Anderson, after Charlie Frye was yanked. Clearly, Anderson knows where his bread is buttered. 

I'm not suggesting you go out of your way to use Edwards over a fantasy stalwart like Andre Johnson or Javon Walker. But I am saying he's a decent candidate for your No. 3 fantasy receiver spot or flex position.  

September 15, 2007

Tough to take the Caddy for a Week Two spin

The good news is that Cadillac Williams has seemingly made a speedy recovery from the bruised ribs that knocked him out of Week One prematurely. He participated in portions of practice all week, and head coach Jon Gruden told the team's official website that he will give Caddy a shot to play despite listing him as questionable on the injury report.

The issue, as Gruden himself recognized, is that there is no telling how long Caddy will last. The Saints' remarkably vulnerable defense, which allowed 143 total yards and a touchdown to Joseph Addai last week, tempts you to roll the dice in Week Two. That temptation grows even stronger when you consider that one of Williams' two 100-yard games came in 2006 against these very Saints in Week Five of last season.

Unfortunately, I can't recommend taking this ride, unless you're in dire straits. Look, we've read this story before. For the better part of Williams' career, he's been nicked up and attempting to play through injury. The results have not exactly been promising; just ask his 2006 owners, who endured a year of one rushing touchdown, two DNPs and 10 games of less than 80 rushing yards. In short, Caddy hasn't exactly shined through injury.

In fairness, last year's failures don't fall entirely on Williams; the Tampa offensive line had their own problems as well. But it's not as if we saw much from this offense in last week's 20-6 loss at Seattle. The likelihood is that Caddy rolls out there at far less than 100 percent, shares more of the workload with Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham and struggles right along with the rest of his teammates. Do yourself a favor and consider all of your options. Chris Brown, Fred Taylor and Brandon Jackson are a few of the options I would recommend over Williams.

September 18, 2007

Houston has a (fantasy) problem

For the bulk of Andre Johnson's four-plus year career, the knock on his fantasy value has been that the Texans' offense hasn't offered enough around him to allow his talent to flourish. Seeing that, can we really expect Houston to produce without Johnson in the lineup? The answer is likely to be a resounding no.

Matt Schaub is all the rage right now in NFL circles, fantasy and otherwise, and for good reason. In one of my leagues, he was traded straight up for disappointing yet promising RB Ronnie Brown. Considering Schaub wasn't even drafted, that's a monster step forward in two weeks. Unfortunately (albeit wisely), Schaub has leaned almost exclusively on Johnson, tossing all three of his touchdowns to Andre. The hookup has also accounted for nearly 60 percent of Schaub's yardage. I don't care what the matchup is, Schaub cannot be used if his weapons consist of just TE Owen Daniels, rookie WR Jacoby Jones and WR Kevin Walter. 

Neither can I feel real comfortable using Ahman Green or Ron Dayne, even against an Indy defense that ceded 153 and two tuttys to Dayne in Week 16 of last season. We all know that was a different Colts team, and without Johnson in the lineup, Bob Sanders and the secondary have no one to fear. Besides, it seems clear that Gary Kubiak is attempting to keep Green fresh by mixing Dayne in late in ballgames, thus diminishing the value of both backs.

If for no other reason than opportunity, it is worth keeping an eye on Daniels and Jones. Daniels immediately becomes the top target with Johnson on the shelf, while Jones shined this preseason when he had a more featured opportunity. That said, if the Texans aren't putting points on the board, increased looks can only help you so much. It's been an eye-opening start in Houston, to be sure, but Johnson's injury threatens to turn the lights back out awfully quick.  

September 20, 2007

Reminder: Stay a week ahead for fantasy success

Go ahead and study your lineup for hours on end, pouring over every detail of this week's matchups, injury reports, weather forecasts, etc. If you're even half as addicted as I am to this game, I know you will. But let my experience this evening serve as a not-so-subtle reminder that all the Week Three homework in the world is not enough to keep you on top of your fantasy game.

Having all but solidifed my lineup decisions for Week Three, I decided to peek ahead to Week Four, knowing that the dreaded bye weeks begin a week from Sunday. Sure enough, there looking back at me was a virtually vacated backfield (with the notable exception of L.T.), thanks to Brandon Jacobs' injury and off days for both Deuce McAllister and Fred Taylor. Since I'm not about to start a backfield featuring Tomlinson and backup Michael Turner, it was imperative for me to find at least someone with a pulse who could be used in Week Four -- a tough task considering how quickly we all prey on runners who show even a glimpse of fantasy upside on Sunday (see Ward, Derrick and Wynn, DeShawn).

Luckily, Sammy Morris was there for the taking, and a meeting with the Bengals in Week Four doesn't completely suck. But had I waited until next week, when everyone was searching for bye-week fill-ins and injury replacements, I very easily could have been sifting through the likes of Musa Smith and Najeh Davenport. If you want your pick of the litter, think one week ahead of the rest of your league.

So those of you with Chris Cooley in your TE spot, Drew Brees as your quarterback or LenDale White as your flex player, now is the time for action. Washington, New Orleans, Tennessee and Jacksonville are off in Week Four.

 

September 23, 2007

Sunday drive around the league, fantasy style

On this third Sunday of NFL action, the fantasy implications are huge; much like the Saints and Eagles, an 0-3 start may send your season spiraling to the cellar. Let's take a quick look around the NFL at the fantasy headlines and expectations for what will go down in each and every tilt:

DET @ PHI: Vegas has the Eagles at -6, which tells me the experts are looking for a breakout effort from Philly. Brian Westbrook could probably cover that spread on his own against this Lions defense, but clearly, if Donnie Mac and Reggie Brown don't show up for this one, when can you use them?

MIA @ NYJ: It doesn't matter who's under center for Gang Green. You're not using either Pennington or Clemens, and yet both are finding their WR weapons. Lav Coles owns the Fins (9 TDs in 11 meetings) and Jerrico Cotchery is en fuego.

BUF @ NE: After throwing non-stop to start the season, this day could be one of those complete reversals in which the Pats just pound the overmatched Bills into submission. Not that you're going to bench Tom Brady or Randy Moss, but I'm going on record with Sammy Morris as a nice Week Three sleeper play.

ARI @ BAL: Today we find out two things about the Raves: 1) Can Willis McGahee exploit a susceptible defense for big fantasy points and 2) Where in the world is Mark Clayton? As for the Cards, I don't expect much at all from them against the nasty Balt D on the road, but you have to play Edge, Fitz and Boldin.

STL @ TB: Jeff Garcia, Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway have a perfect opportunity to prove to us that they can be relied on in the right matchup, while Steven Jackson has to bring his owners off the ledge with a breakout performance.

SF @ PIT: With the exception of Frank Gore, there isn't a single Niner I want in my lineup today. And those with Gore on their roster had best get a first-round performance from someone else, because Frankie will find the sledding very difficult on this day.

IND @ HOU: Despite a surprising 2-0 record, I expect this one to follow a very familiar script in which the Colts roll over the Texans. Start Ahman Green if you must, but trust me, if we know that he's the Texans' only hope, then so do the Colts.

SD @ GB: The Packers' defense have faced a rusty Eagles offense and a banged-up Giants unit. It says here that LaDainian Tomlinson busts out in a big way on Sunday, and I'm not nearly as down on Philip Rivers as most.

MIN @ KC: This is all kinds of ugly, from a fantasy and reality standpoint. With the exception of Larry Johnson, who faces one of the staunchest run defense in the NFL, the two best fantasy plays in this game may very well be the defenses.

CLE @ OAK: A year ago, this one elicited nothing more than yawns. Now, however, with the Browns dropping fitty-one on the Bengals last week and LaMont Jordan surging back into fantasy significance, it wouldn't surprise to see another shootout here. Jordan, Ronald Curry, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow and Jamal Lewis are all very much in play.

JAX @ DEN: Having been gashed by both Marshawn Lynch and LaMont Jordan, the Broncos defense has proven vulnerable against the run. Would I feel comfortable with Mo Jo Drew or Fred Taylor in my starting lineup? Not completely, but it's not as bad a matchup as it appears.

CIN @ SEA: If the Bengals' defense is truly as awful as it was last week, we could very well see Carson Palmer put together a fantasy season for the ages. Remember, when Peyton went off for his record-breaking campaign, his wretched defense was a major driving factor.

NYG @ WAS: Big Blue is in big trouble. Jason Campbell definitely belongs on your Week Three sleeper list after seeing what Romo and Favre did to the Giants. Don't be surprised to see Ladell Betts resurface today, either, if the Skins are up big in the second half. Another reminder: If you're waiting to hear the game-time decision on Plax, remember that you're going to need a late-game or prime-time option to sub in if he's a no-go. If you're reserves all play early, don't risk a goose egg.

CAR @ ATL: If you have DeShaun Foster on your roster, you better have two very solid options ahead of him if you're not using him. Of his last five 100-yard games (regular season), three of them have come against the Falcons.

DAL @ CHI: There seems to be some fascination with trying to predict Rex Grossman's next big fantasy day -- fantasy "pundits" were all over him last week at home vs. KC -- but let me remind you that the turnover-prone signalcaller has just six touchdowns in his last nine regular-season games.

TEN @ NOR: Given how many big plays the Saints have given up since the start of last season, I wouldn't have any problem using Vince Young, LenDale White and Chris Brown on MNF. On the other sideline, don't underestime what the Superdome turf means to Reggie Bush. On grass, the kid posts 2.6 yards per game and has one TD. On turf, he blows up to 4.1 per carry with seven TDs. On Monday the Saints open the Dome for the first time this season.

 

 

September 25, 2007

Deuce McAllister: Can't live with him, can't live without him

On auction night 2005, I was the proud recipient of a black Deuce McAllister jersey after investing a chunk of my budget on the Saints' workhorse, who was coming off three straight 1,000-yard seasons in which he scored 30 touchdowns. Five games later, his torn ACL injury ruined my season. The following year, with Reggie Bush joining Deuce's backfield, you can imagine why I might have been a tad gunshy.

And then Deuce rebounded with another 1,000-yard, double-digit fantasy season. I couldn't have been more impressed, and I told you as much as I watched him fall to the fourth and fifth rounds in most drafts. I pounced in two of my five leagues, nabbing a No. 2 back (in my mind) for the price of a No. 3. And now we all know how that worked out. It is clear to me now that like a beautiful woman, I cannot live with Deuce, and I cannot live without him.

Having said my piece, I am earnestly looking forward to seeing what happens in the New Orleans' backfield, because without Deuce we are going to learn an awful lot about Reggie Bush this season. Bush did not last longer than the middle of the second round in any of my four drafts this preseason, and that was with the expectation that Deuce would take 200-plus carries. Can Reggie carry the load? Can he be effective between the tackles? Will he convert in short-yardage and goal-line situations? Is he a legitimate first-round fantasy back?

Reggie, your table is set. Now all you have to do is feast.

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About September 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in September 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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