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August 2007 Archives

August 6, 2007

The preseason matters; Steelers-Saints fantasy notes

Before you go ballistic on my headline for this entry, I'm not about to argue that Drew Bress' 1-for-6 performance on Sunday night means he'll bust this season. Nor have I added WR Cedric Wilson (four catches, 99 yards) to my sleeper list. But I am here to tell you that the preseason matters. It's not necessarily about the box score, but reading between the stats does offer important fantasy takeaways. Here are a couple from last night's NFL preseason opener:

- The Steelers' offense does appear to be less traditional and more wide open under offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. You could see that just by watching the formations he trotted out there, rather than the conservative power rushing scheme the Steelers have always offered. No, Wilson is not suddenly worth drafting, but this bodes well for Hines Ward and Ben Roethlisberger bouncing back this season and for Santonio Holmes making good on his popular sleeper status.

- Evidently Najeh Davenport is the frontrunner for Willie Parker's handcuff. The fact that he started the contest, got the initial goal-line opportunity and ran with the first team told me that. However, I'd keep an eye on this Carey Davis cat. We all know what Davenport, Kevan Barlow and Verron Haynes bring to the table, so there's certainly an opportunity to make an impression among that undistinguished lot. Davis broke off a 56-yarder on Sunday night.

- For what a couple series are worth (perhaps not much, admittedly), the Saints' defense looked every bit as fantasy-friendly as it was a year ago. As good as their offense was, their defense was equally exciting for opposing fantasy owners looking for big plays. When Pittsburgh rolls up over 300 yards of first-half offense with guys like Charlie Batch and Barlow playing, the story looks similar. Keep an eye on this.

- I'm not worried about the Saints' offense. In fact, I suggest everyone pay close attention to what they do in their opening drive in Friday's next preseason contest vs. the Bills. Something tells me Sean Payton is going to have a little extra motivation for his starters' game plan, and I'm looking forward to seeing what Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and Marques Colston display on Friday night.

August 9, 2007

Brown's bone bruise a relief for fantasy owners

That enormous sigh of relief you heard out of New Orleans this week was from Saints' fans climbing back off the ledge after results of Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown's knee examination came back extremely favorable. Brown, who was feared lost to a ligament injury, was diagnosed with a minor bone bruise, no structural damage and a return date as early as Friday's preseason visit with the Bills.

You heard a similar sigh of relief from any and all fantasy owners with Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and Marques Colston on their rosters. If we've learned anything from the retirement of Willie Roaf, the injuries to Orlando Pace and the retirement threats of Jonathan Ogden, it's that you simply cannot overstate the presence of an All-Pro lineman that makes your offense go. I'd be lying to you if I told you I wasn't a tad concerned about the sudden departure of Colts LT Tarik Glenn. Sure, Jeff Saturday is the leader of that front five, but Glenn was a critical piece to the puzzle that has always kept Peyton Manning's uniform clean.

Remember, the Saints' front five allowed only eight more sacks than the Colts last year, and Brown was a huge part of that, no pun intended. Fantasy owners counting on another explosive year from New Orleans should be thanking their lucky stars that Brown will be right where he belongs after this brief training-camp scare.

August 13, 2007

Monsters of the ... Airways?

I don't think I'm breaking any news when I tell you the Bears aren't rich in passing tradition. Even in their recent resurgence under Lovie Smith they've been a power running team. I'm not about to throw away years of evidence to the contrary and suggest they are suddenly the Indy Colts by any stretch of the imagination, but if training camp and their preseason opener Saturday night against the Texans are any indication, fantasy owners may have to pay some attention to the airways in Chicago this season.

Yes, I fully understand that Rex Grossman is under center for the Bears. I also fully understand that the Bears have surrounded him with more explosive weapons than this franchise may have ever seen. On any given day, the talk of training camp has been the pending breakout season by a pass catcher, be it Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Mark Bradley or Greg Olsen. And it was that depth that was on display for the Bears in the exhibition opener.

Grossman opened 8-for-10 and hit five different receivers in essentially two drives: Olsen twice, Berrian once on a pretty third-and-long slant, even Cedric Benson got into the act with three dumpoffs. Even after Grossman took a seat, backup Brian Griese had Bradley and Hester to throw to on a touchdown drive that saw him complete six-of-seven passes for 72 yards. It wasn't any one particular player's performance that stood out necessarily, but rather the offense and philosophy as a whole. This team may put up some points this year, especially if defenses cannot stack the box against Benson, who suddenly may have a little extra running room inside the tackles.

Specifically, it's time to accept that Grossman belongs on a deep sleeper list. Say what you will about all those turnovers, but recall the 23 touchdowns and the 3,200 yards and recognize that he's got one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. Also bump Berrian and Olsen up your rankings. Olsen was heavily involved with the starters, often lining up in the slot. He clearly had Grossman's attention and is poised to be a factor from the start. Grossman's initial comfort in the pocket and in his progressions also seemed to bode well for Benson's receiving contributions, who will see a ton of safety-valve outlet passes if Grossman has matured.

 

August 14, 2007

Green and white won't necessarily suit RB Jones

The preseason injury du jour that fantasy owners are currently preoccupied about is the strained calf that is threatening to keep Jets RB Thomas Jones out for the bulk of the exhibition schedule. I'm not overly concerned about the injury itself, but it does make Jones the centerpiece of the water-cooler conversation, as did his offseason trade from Chicago to New York.

It seemed that when Jones headed east this offseason, fantasy owners decided he was worth talking about. A new team, no more Cedric Benson, no more contract squabbles, etc. Suddenly, after flying under the radar screen for the bulk of his solid three-year stretch in the Second City, he was a fantasy commodity with an unencumbered path to production.

I'm not sure where all the love is coming from. For all the Benson talk the last couple years, Jones for all intents and purposes was the featured guy; he averaged 305 carries the past two seasons for one of the most consistent running games in the NFL. I'm certain the Jets' offensive line is not as productive nor experienced as the Bears' is, nor is the team nearly as committed to its rushing attack. I'm also not entirely convinced that Leon Washington won't see just as many opportunities as Benson did a year ago, especially considering he's a much more explosive receiver than Jones.

In short, Jones is what he is. If he stays healthy, he's a good bet for 1,150 yards and six touchdowns -- or exactly what you'd want to see from your No. 3 fantasy back in a standard-sized league. I certainly wouldn't reach for him in the second round.

August 16, 2007

Hold off as long as possible for your fantasy drafts

When it comes to overexuberance and fantasy football, I am perhaps the last guy who you would expect to be patiently waiting for the best day of the fantasy season (draft day). And yet, here I am, on my hands and knees, begging and pleading with you: Do not jump the gun on hosting your draft or auction.

It's too early to begin distributing players. Most fantasy folks will tell you that the really significant injuries, ones that will ruin your season if you already own those players, are few and far between. That may or may not be true, but it's not even the point. The reality is that far too much is unknown at this point of the preseason, so I respectfully demand that you sit back, enjoy the exhibition slate and collect as much information as humanly possible before you embark on another fantastic voyage.

Just a few examples of information we're still waiting on:  Is Larry Johnson past his prime after a record-breaking workload? Is Randy Moss back in the elite now that he's a Patriot? Are Laurence Maroney, Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai ready to be featured fantasy runners? Is Donovan McNabb back, is he a perpetual season-ending injury, or is he somewhere in between? What in the world is going on in the Oakland, Tennessee, Carolina, Green Bay, Atlanta (shall I continue?) backfields?

Believe me, I'm well aware we may not have perfect information on any of these situations when the preseason ends. But I do know we'll have more information, and given how important your draft or auction is, don't you owe it to yourself and your league to digest it before selecting players?

If you're downright desperate for fantasy action, I suggest two things. First, set your draft order. As strongly as I feel about delaying your draft, I'm equally passionate about knowing your draft position well in advance of draft day. A team drafting first will approach their research far differently than the one drafting tenth. Owners should know this in advance of their homework and be able to apply it. It's also a great way to launch the season and satiate that beast in your belly.

Second, if you simply can't wait for the fourth preseason affair, I will permit you to get started a tad early: after the third game. Since virtually nothing happens in that fourth exhibition game, I do give you permission to commence with the festivities as soon as Tuesday, August 28, after the Bengals and Falcons conclude the third week of the preseason.

August 19, 2007

Preseason action shifts fantasy landscape at QB

There were no shortage of notable happenings in the NFL's second week of preseason action, such as Travis Henry's sprained MCL and impressive efforts by rookie RBs Adrian Peterson and Brandon Jackson. However, what stood out to me the last few days were the ups and downs of our fantasy signalcallers. Naturally, they faced some vanilla defenses, second-stringers, etc., but hey, it's what we have to work with. So here's what I took from the action:

— Donovan McNabb obviously looked sharp in his first game back from last year's season-ending knee injury. Given what we saw last year from Carson Palmer -- who tore his knee far later than McNabb -- I feel absolutely secure in McNabb's recovery, enough so that I'm comfortable taking the plunge on this on-field stud as soon as the QB's Big Five (Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees and Bulger) are off the board. However, unlike the aforementioned five, if I do tab McNabb as my starter, I will grab another capable starter soon thereafter. McNabb's injury history is too consistent to be considered freaky coincidence. 

— Vince Young is a fearsome competitor and a sick athlete, but I'm not convinced he's prepared to be a weekly fantasy starter. Remember, he averaged only 147 passing yards per start last year, and you just can't count on him running enough every week to make up for that deficiency. Even more disconcerting is the fact that the Titans have not given him anything to work with. Not only did they lose Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade in the passing game, but they also have question marks in the running attack. Defense will be loading up to make anyone but V.Y. beat them this season.

— Lions QB Jon Kitna amassed a 121 QB rating throwing to guys like Shaun McDonald and Troy Walters, completing 12 of 16 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown. That's with Roy Williams and Mike Furrey on the sideline and Calvin Johnson failing to record a catch. That effort is certainly not going to curb the sleeper momentum Kitna has gathered this offseason, his second under offensive guru Mike Martz.  

— I've gone on record telling you not to pay any attention to Daunte Culpepper this season, and I'm not about to let 75 yards, two passing scores and 13 rushing yards convince me otherwise. Culpepper still has his health and diminshing skills to worry about, not to mention no offensive line, veteran contender Josh McCown's presence and franchise QB JaMarcus Russell's inevitable arrival.

— So we've seen what Brady Quinn can do against the Lions' third-string defense. I respect Romeo Crennel for standing on principle in the short term, but doesn't he owe it to the franchise, the city and the fan base to see what he can do against first-teamers the rest of the preseason? 

— It sounds like we don't have to worry too much about Jason Campbell's bruised knee, as the Skins consider him day-to-day. Then again, since he's way down in the 20-something neighborhood of the QB rankings, I get the sense no one was too concerned in the first place.  

August 21, 2007

McAllister way undervalued in fantasy rankings

Let me get this straight. Reggie Bush is a borderline first-round fantasy back, in spite of the fact that he shares carries with another quality runner. Yet his compatriot in the Saints' explosive offense, veteran bruiser Deuce McAllister, cannot possibly be relied on because he has to give a portion of his workload to Bush? Pardon me if I see no reason at all in that logic.

The general perception is that Bush will be more effective and dangerous in his second season, with a year of development under his belt and a greater familiarity in Sean Payton's scheme and reading NFL defenses. That rationale, I have no problem with.

Where I get confused is the part where you tell me that Deuce is less valuable than any number of unproven young runners who to this day haven't done a fraction of what Deuce has, even while sharing carries with you know who. Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Cadillac Williams, DeAngelo Williams...take a look at any fantasy magazine on the newsstand and you'll find several, if not most, of those uncertainties ranked ahead of Deuce -- who has topped 1,000 yards and scored at least eight touchdowns in each of his last four healthy seasons. As much potential as Brown, Benson and Jacobs have, they have one 1,000-yard season between them...combined (and Brown's 1,0008 yards in 2006 barely qualified). 

I know you'd love to avoid committee backfields if you can. But the cold, hard reality of today's NFL is that it's impossible. You're better off embracing the ones that offer points and yards by the boatload, and the Saints' tandem tops that list. McAllister was a weekly fantasy workhorse a year ago, with Bush in the fold, and it says here he'll repeat that feat again in 2007.  

August 23, 2007

Johnson should regain spot in fantasy's top three

So, the Larry Johnson contract saga comes to an end, and we can take that issue off the list of question marks facing the fantasy stud for the 2007 season. Along with concerns about his quarterback and offensive line, Johnson's holdout caused his value to plummet relative to other top fantasy options, and he fell as far as 10th overall in a recent draft conducted by one of my expert colleagues.

Now that Johnson is officially in camp, I urge you to place him back in the top three where he rightfully belongs. Does he still have lingering concerns for fantasy owners to worry about? Sure. He's coming off an NFL-record workload, has an enormous question mark under center and plays in an offense that has lost far too many key blockers. 

But far too often, we forget the No. 1 factor in fantasy value: Talent. And LJ is as talented as anyone in the game. Furthermore, all of the other backs you might consider at No. 3 behind L.T. and S-Jax -- namely Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Joseph Addai, Rudi Johnson, and Willie Parker -- have their own questions to answer. At least we know that L.J. is more than capable of carrying your fantasy team.

 

August 25, 2007

Packers' fantasy depth chart at WR in flux

Coming into the preseason, it wasn't difficult to assess the Packers' receiving corps from a fantasy standpoint. You had Donald Driver, a solid and steady weekly starter; second-year man Greg Jennings, a popular sleeper based on flashes of production as a rookie; and basically, everyone else. Recent circumstances in exhibition games have suddenly thrown that evaluation out of whack.

First and foremost, Driver's untimely foot sprain in Thursday's game against the Jags puts his Week One availability in jeopardy. The Packers are optimistic the injury is not as serious as it initially appeared, which is very good news for owners who already own him. Also in their favor is Driver's tough-as-nails track record. The veteran has missed only four games since 2001, despite fairly significant bumps and bruises, including a scary sprained neck and shoulder issues. There is some risk in drafting Driver as highly as you would have last week, but barring a surprise diagnosis, it appears he will not miss significant time. 

Also raising eyebrows in Green Bay is the sooner-than-expected emergence of third-round rookie James Jones. In fairness, the Pack saw something in Jones many did not (myself included), so kudos to Ted Thompson and company, who have watched their first-day pick rank second in the entire league in preseason receiving. Jones' success and obvious chemistry with Brett Favre have fans and fantasy fanatics calling for Jones to start ahead of Jennings, although coach Mike McCarthy claims that is not on the horizon, even noting that Jones has learned Driver's position and not Jennings'.

Interesting then, that Jones will have a chance to run with the first team in Driver's stead for the time being. That certainly cannot hurt his chances of staying in the mix, continuing to demand Favre's attention and making an immediate impact in the Packers' evolving offense. That said, it's still just the preseason; it's not as if I'm about to pimp the Saints' Lance Moore, who leads the NFL in receiving as of today. Jennings performed under the lights of the regular season as a rookie, which still gives him a leg up on Jones. However, you better believe Jones is firmly on my sleeper list for the final rounds of my drafts next week, and a couple rounds higher than that in keeper leagues. 

August 26, 2007

First fantasy draft in the books

Well, it's been a long time coming, but after much anticipation, my first real fantasy draft is in the books. I had the 10th pick in a 10-team league that rewards six points for a rushing/receiving score, five points for a passing score, one point for 10 yards rushing/receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. There are bonus points for 100-yard rushing/receiving games, 300-yard passing games and longer touchdowns. We start one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one PK and one D/ST. Here's how it went down for me:

1(10): RB Rudi Johnson, Bengals
2(11): RB Willie Parker, Steelers
3(30): WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
4(31): WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
5(50): RB Deuce McAllister, Saints
6(51): WR Reggie Brown, Eagles
7(70): RB Marion Barber, Cowboys
8(71): QB Jay Cutler, Broncos
9(90): WR Santonio Holmes, Steelers
10(91): QB Matt Leinart, Cardinals
11(110): TE Chris Cooley, Redskins
12(111): D/ST Panthers
13(130): WR Greg Jennings, Packers
14(131): PK Shayne Graham, Bengals
15(150): RB Chris Brown, Titans
16(151): TE Greg Olsen, Bears

I'm interested to hear your thoughts, but I'll give you some of my top-level takeaways from the proceedings. I was awfully pleased to get Rudi and Willie at the first turn; they're unspectacular but solid and had 12 100-yard games between them. Consider that a reminder to know your scoring system. I actually passed on T.O. for both my first wideouts. He ruined me in his last year in Philly, and I just couldn't pull the trigger on that level of risk. I was all set to grab either McNabb or Rivers in Round 5 when they both went off the board in the three picks before me. In hindsight, knowing I was able to still grab both Cutler and Leinart, I'm glad I didn't panic and jump into the QB run.

If this looks like a remarkably deep team, that's because it just may be. One thing I'm still perplexed by is the tendency of far too many owners to rush to draft TEs, QBs and D/STs before they have built depth behind their starting core. While my competiton was grabbing second-tier TEs and backup QBs, I was landing value like Deuce in Round 5, Barber (16 TDs, folks) in Round 7 and Santonio Holmes in Round 9.

I'm not exactly sure why I grabbed a backup TE in the final round, which is something I'm not inclined to do ever. Perhaps it's because Olsen has been the talk of Bears camp. Perhaps it's because I'm concerned about the Skins offense or their early bye week. In any case, he may be the first to go when the waiver wire opens.

Bottom line, it's a roster that lacks sex appeal, but that may have been inevitable with the 10th pick. I figure reaching for exciting talent like Reggie Bush or Calvin Johnson might have aacomplished that, but I seemed to opt instead for depth and value. What are your impressions?

 

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About August 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in August 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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