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July 2007 Archives

July 6, 2007

Rhodes' suspension clears fantasy picture in Oakland backfield

In a two-back committee backfield, all you can hope for is something that sets the two runners apart — be it performance, injury or suspension — so that you have a clearer picture of which back to choose in fantasy play. That's exactly the luxury we've been afforded by the four-game suspension of Raiders RB Dominic Rhodes.

When Rhodes signed in Oakland, it put a wrench in the value of one-time Raiders workhorse LaMont Jordan. However, with Rhodes out the first four games, it's Jordan's job to take and run with early in the season. Expect Jordan to climb up draft boards as a lower-tier starter, while Rhodes should plummet another 10 spots or so as a clear backup who will max out at 12 games. Given the Raiders' offensive struggles and their porous offensive line, Jordan probably can't be taken as early as veterans Ahman Green, Fred Taylor and Jamal Lewis, but he's at least relevant again.  

July 8, 2007

Vick's fantasy troubles now limited to field

Rumor has it the federal dog-fighting investigation being conducted at the propery once owned by Michael Vick will not indict the Falcons quarterback. Whether that is right or wrong is a subject for another time and another blog, but what is germane to this discussion is what it means for Vick's fantasy value, which was considerable last season. Remember, his 1,000 rushing yards made him a top-five fantasy QB in most scoring systems. Vick's troubles off the field made a suspension possible from stringent commish Roger Goodell, but at this point, that feels unlikely to this scribe.

Falcons QB Michael VickStill, Vick is not out of the woods yet, in terms of his fantasy potential. I for one am not sold that Vick is a Bobby Petrino quarterback. Petrino wants Vick to be a pass-first, run-last QB, and if you've spent anytime watching Vick in his career, you have to wonder if he has what it takes to be a more traditional quarterback. 

Perhaps Petrino is smart enough to find creative ways to use Vick's legs. Perhaps I'm making too much of the scheme change. Perhaps Petrino is exactly what Vick needs to turn the corner as a passer. I, for one, am not banking on that. I wouldn't even consider Vick until eight QBs are off the board (the top five, plus McNabb, Rivers and Hasselbeck), and I'd even be tempted to roll the dice on Jay Cutler or Vince Young rather than hitch my wagon to Vick, who has been in the news for all the wrong reasons recently. 

July 18, 2007

QB Culpepper not a fantasy factor

QB Daunte Culpepper is back in the headlines, this time after being released by the Dolphins on Tuesday. For some reason — perhaps one of the most incredible fantasy seasons ever handed in by a quarterback (see 2004) — Culpepper is difficult for fantasy owners to dismiss. He had all the tantalizing tools that make a fantasy stud: the huge arm, the athletic ability, the elusiveness.

The operative word there is "had." Culpepper is not the same player he once was. Fantasy owners looking for a late-round steal or that bargain-bin find will track his free agency closely, but don't bother. Nothing we've seen or heard from Daunte since his devastating knee injuries have suggested he's the same passer, let alone remotely recovered from his surgeries. Even if he signs in a promising spot, he faces a severely long road back to fantasy significance. 

July 27, 2007

Norwood likely overvalued; Dunn shelved but not out

For those fantasy owners desperately trying to write off Falcons RB Warrick Dunn for years, this week's revelation that he will be shelved somewhere between 3-6 weeks after back surgery is icing on the cake. The cake, of course, being dynamic second-year RB Jerious Norwood, who is high on many fantasy sleeper lists this season. Norwood is a more explosive player than Dunn and is more physcially suited to Bobby Petrino's power running scheme than Dunn, who excelled in the Falcons' old zone-blocking system. That was enough to have Norwood going several rounds ahead of Dunn in this summer's mock drafts, and that was before the injury.

With Dunn shelved for all of training camp and the preseason, watch Norwood's value skyrocket up the RB draft board into territory immediately behind unproven starters like Brandon Jacobs, high-upside rookies like Marshawn Lynch and fading veterans such as Ahman Green. In RB-heavy drafts, it wouldn't surprise me to see over-anxious owners jump on Norwood in the early fourth round.  

I won't be one of those owners. I do like what I see in Norwood, but I don't think I'm breaking any news here when I tell you to worry about what's going on in Atlanta. You have a new offense, a bad starting quarterback (Joey Harrington) and very few compelling weapons out wide. I fear we're going to see a lot of eight-man fronts begging Harrington to throw and constant second-half deficits forcing Joey to air it out, much like he did in Miami last year.

Additionally, there is the matter of Dunn's return, which he and Petrino claim will occur perhaps in time for Week One. I've learned, after three straight 1,000-yard seasons, not to count him out. Norwood is dangerous with the ball in his hands, to be certain. But his own head coach has suggested he needs work in pass protection, where Dunn excels. For the long haul of the 2007 season, I still see this is largely a committee backfield, and one where not a whole lot of fantasy production will come from.

Bottom line: I like Norwood as a sleeper, but his value is ascending far beyond that. Don't overpay for him.

July 30, 2007

Packers' fantasy backfield looking bare

It's way, way too soon to make conclusions, but thus far, the early indications from Packers camp suggest that fantasy owners may miss Ahman Green even more than Cheeseheads themselves. Less than a week into training camp, both third-year back Vernand Morency and rookie Brandon Jackson have failed to impress in their battle for Green's workload.

Morency is already nursing a knee injury. It is said to be minor, and I believe it, but when the top concern about a guy is his ability to run inside and take a pounding, and he winds up nicked in the first week of training camp, I'm going to go ahead and call that a bad omen. As for Jackson, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported on Monday that the rook dropped a couple passes, missed assignments in protection and ran with "nerves and unfamiliarity." Not exactly taking the bull by the horns if you ask me.

With neither back distinguishing himself, even guys like P.J. Pope, Noah Herron and DeShawn Wynn are staying in the fray. If that's not enough to persuade you to avoid this backfield for fantasy purposes, I don't know what is.

July 31, 2007

Bad break for Gore illustrates early fantasy RB risk

Frank Gore's broken hand is not, in and of itself, a major problem. He's expected to be ready for Week One, if not the end of the preseason. He'll be re-examined next week. No biggie.  However, it's the larger issue at hand (no pun intended) that I'd like to discuss, and that is, the enormous risk that pervades this second-tier of fantasy runners, beginning with Gore and Shaun Alexander and continuing through other first-rounders such as Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, etc. 

Gore was a complete beast a year ago. Trust me, he helped win me a title, and I don't have to tell you how much that endears a player to his fantasy owner. But the entire time he was running away from defenders, I was just waiting for that injury to ruin his season. Look, the kid works his tail off and plays as hard as anyone in the game, but he has had two reconstructive knee surgeries and two shoulder surgeries and he's only 24 years old. His 2006 numbers alone make him a sure-fire, top-5 fantasy pick, but he's one bad step away from ruining your season. The same could be said about anyone in the NFL, but runners are particularly vulnerable, and guys like Gore, Westbrook, and Laurence Maroney have over the course of time proven to be even more vulnerable than others. 

This is precisely why I find it mind-boggling that more owners do not consider Peyton Manning in the middle of the first round in QB-heavier scoring formats. Is he one hit away from ruining your season? Of course, he's a football player. But the fact that he's never sustained that kind of hit -- nor even one that has held him out of one single game in his entire career -- should tell you something. In my mind, the group of running backs after the Big Three (LT, LJ and S-Jax) is a crapshoot, while Manning is a sure thing. Just consider it; that's all I ask.

One other thing about Gore: Do not forget that early last season he lost his goal-line role and nearly his featured job when he fumbled in each of his first four games. It's worth monitoring whether this hand injury compromises his ability to secure the football. There is one silver lining for those owners who already have Gore on the roster or are targeting him in their draft. This will give the Niners a real good look at his backups, allowing Gore owners to get a better feel for his handcuff. 

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About July 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in July 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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