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May 2007 Archives

May 11, 2007

First mock draft lights fantasy fever

It's on, folks. The sure-fire sign that a new fantasy football season has begun is the onset of the mock draft seasons, and sure enough, this week we staged our first of many to come this summer. Ths draft, which took place Wednesday between writers from both PFW and CBS SportsLine, will appear in our annual fantasy football preview on newsstands in June, so I won't bog you down with the entire proceedings. However, I will share my individual results. It was a traditional serpentine draft with 12 teams, and I drew the fifth pick. We start one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one PK, and one DEF.

1. RB Frank Gore
2. RB Maurice Jones-Drew
3. WR Steve Smith
4. WR Randy Moss
5. RB Warrick Dunn
6. QB Philip Rivers
7. WR Braylon Edwards
8. TE Alge Crumpler
9. RB Ladell Betts
10. WR Kevin Curtis
11. MIA defense
12. WR Ronald Curry
13. PK Shayne Graham
14. RB Chris Brown
15. TE Jason Witten
16. RB Maurice Hicks

All things considered, I think this is contending team. The pick that stands out is Moss in the fourth round. I loved the gamble. He could win me a title if he rebounds, but at that spot, he won't ruin my season if he busts. The Rivers pick felt like a reach, and still does, but QBs were flying off the board, I have Rivers pegged for a breakout season and you have to be aggressive to get your sleepers.

I feel good about my depth at the RB and WR positions, but if I have one regret here, it was my failure to handcuff and couple my backs appropriately. When I made Dunn my third back, I internally committed to adding Jerious Norwood later, in case Norwood becomes the guy instead. Unfortunately, the RB-desperate owners preyed on the backups sooner than I thought and I lost him. I also biffed later in the draft; instead of adding Greg Jones as Mo Jo Drew insurance, I took a flier on Chris Brown. I don't hate the pick itself, but I should have gone with Greg Jones instead. I at least learned my lesson and went with Frank Gore handcuff Maurice Hicks in the final round. 

I like the squad as a whole, but consider it a lesson learned for this summer: RB depth is better spent on protecting your early investments than it is on one-off prospective fliers.

May 15, 2007

Mock auction fantasy squad bests my mock draft team

On Friday, I shared the roster from my first mock fantasy draft of the '07-08 season, and while I was pretty enthused about a lineup featuring Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Smith and Randy Moss, I think my mock auction team is even better. The day after our PFW-CBS SportsLine draft, 10 of us here at PFW banged out the first auction of the season with the same lineup requirements: one QB, two RB, two WR, one TE, one PK and one DEF. We had an imaginary $100 budget per team with a roster of 16 players and a scoring system of six points for a rushing/receiving score and four for a passing TD. Here's how Team Court turned out:

Team Court RB Shaun AlexanderQB Donovan McNabb: $8
QB Jay Cutler: $2
RB Shaun Alexander: $22
RB Ronnie Brown: $11
RB Maurice Jones-Drew: $9
RB Ladell Betts: $5
RB DeAngelo Williams: $5
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh: $11
WR Calvin Johnson: $9
WR Andre Johnson: $9
WR Bernard Berrian: $2
WR Brandon Marshall: $1
TE Ben Watson: $3
PK Jeff Wilkins: $1
DEF Miami: $1

There are any number of ways to approach an auction. You can spend big on high-ticket guys and fill in with $1 players. You can eschew premium players and build a deep team of second- and third-tier commodities. Or you can simply identify good value when it presents itself and pounce. The latter strategy became my own when the bidding on Alexander slowed in the low 20s and with Ronnie Brown coming at a very affordable cost. Solidifying a capable starting backfield for the price of one elite back (LT, LJ and S-Jax all went for $33 or more) allowed me to invest in another top-20 back (Mo Jo Drew), who I actually prefer to Brown. 

McNabb for $8 felt like a huge steal as well, especially in the wake of recent news that he'll be ready for training camp. I secured him and a very capable backup (Jay Cutler) for $10 total, which is a lot less than my colleagues paid for Peyton Manning ($23), Tom Brady ($20), Carson Palmer ($20), Drew Brees ($15) and Marc Bulger ($13).

When you find bargains in auction formats, it affords you the ability to add backup depth that would start on most teams. You'll notice that the lineup above features two top-11 QBs, three top-18 RBs and three top-26 WRs (although I have Calvin Johnson firmly in my personal top 20). High-upside sleepers like Williams, Betts, Berrian and Marshall are nice, cheap purchases for the end of the bench or the trade block. 

You can't go into an auction counting on finding such blue-light specials. But even if the players is not your personal favorite (Ronnie Brown is a perfect example for me), you must identify a bargain when you see one and take action. Like the roster above, your squad will be better off for it. 

May 16, 2007

McNabb securing his spot on fantasy draft board

After a third prohibitive injury in the last five years, it appeared Donovan McNabb would be one of fantasy football's toughest nuts to crack this preseason. Do we rank him like the pass-happy QB that he is, like the elite passer who was putting up monster numbers in last season's first half? Or do we allow him to plummet down the draft board, not only for his gimpy knee but also for his propensity for major health problems?

Eagles QB Donovan McNabbWell, we got a little bit of help this week when we learned that McNabb's ACL is expected to be far enough along for him to participate fully in training camp this summer. Camp will begin exactly eight months after McNabb had his ACL repaired, and the season will start nearly nine months post surgery.

We'll of course keep a close eye on how McNabb looks in training camp, but all signs suggest the knee will not be a limiting factor for him. After all, he's no longer a major rushing threat and has spent most of his recent seasons in the pocket. Carson Palmer tore his ACL and his MCL, and dislocated his kneecap, and he started Week One only eight months post surgery, threw for 4,000 yards and didn't miss a game this season. 

So where does McNabb belong on the draft board? Obviously, Peyton Manning tops the QB list, and Palmer isn't far behind. Tom Brady, with Randy Moss in tow, is an extremely compelling option, and there's no reason not to count on continued stardom from Drew Brees and Marc Bulger. However, at that point, McNabb has to be the guy. He's shown the ability to dominate fantasy play, totaling 18 TDs and almost 2,700 passing yards in just 10 games last year. If he were not an injury risk, he'd be a shoo-in for the top five. Unfortunately, although the knee looks to be progressing, the track record of significant, albeit fluky, injuries prevents me from going any higher.

 

May 17, 2007

Hester becomes fantasy football factor with position change

For all his game-changing and record-breaking accomplishments, the Bears' Devin Hester was little more than an afterthought in fantasy football last season. Perhaps your scoring system included his return TDs for the Bears' defense/special teams. That was about as big a difference as Hester made.

Bears WR Devin HesterHowever, now that Hester is being shifted from CB to WR, there is a place for Hester himself on fantasy rosters. The critical difference is that he will qualify for a position in your lineup. That alone makes him worth a late-round flier if your league rewards you for return TDs; remember, he had six TDs a year ago and saw just one snap on offense. Even as a return specialist, he is the equaivalent of an all-or-nothing goal-line back in deeper leagues. Think T.J. Duckett, for example.

But even more tantalizing is this week's revelation that offensive coordinator Ron Turner would like to get him 5-7 touches per game in a Reggie Bush-type role. Now, it's a long way between now and September, and Hester must prove he can handle the Bears' playbook. However, his home-run potential on any given touch demands that we take notice and pay close attention to how he adjusts to this new role in training camp and during the preseason. As it stands, he's a late-round flier in deep and WR-heavy leagues, but a smooth adjustment and a significant role with the offense could demand a quick climb up the cheat sheet.

 

 

May 22, 2007

Move Scheffler down, Graham up your fantasy draft board

Broncos TE Tony SchefflerOne of this summer's favorite fantasy football sleepers, Broncos TE Tony Scheffler, will be sidelined two months after breaking his foot and having a screw inserted following Denver's recent minicamp. His return timetable has him back on the field for training camp on the early side or late in the preseason on the more conservative side.

Clearly, this isn't a positive development for our preseason No. 15 TE. He will miss valuable time ramping up with QB Jay Cutler in their first full offseason as starters and, of course, will fall behind from a strength and conditioning standpoint. While he is on the shelf, newly acquired TE Daniel Graham will see more reps and likely a bigger role in the passing game, as opposed to blocking while Scheffler is out in routes. 

The net result? Bump Scheffler down from No. 15 and Graham up from No. 23, such that they are much closer together. Scheffler's injury isn't likely to keep him sidelined into the regular season, and Scheffler is the more promising receiving threat, so for now he should still remain higher than Graham, who became more of a blocking weapon in his years in New England. Just know that Scheffler is no longer worth reaching for on draft day because of the injury.   

May 31, 2007

Vick has fantasy bust written all over him

In the annual race for El Busto — my preseason pick for the biggest bust in fantasy football — Falcons QB Michael Vick is currently running a one-horse race. Last season, Vick was a top-10 fantasy QB in all four of my leagues, and a top-five QB in half of them, thanks to his unparalleled rushing prowess. However, after his eventful offseason, last year is a very distant memory.

Falcons QB Michael VickAssuming you haven't been under a boulder the last week or so, you're more than aware that Vick is embroiled in a very touchy situation with his "pets." What you might not know is that his alleged "habits" would constitute a felony if charges are brought. Consider for a moment that for all their troubles, neither Pacman Jones nor Chris Henry was ever charged with more than a misdemeanor. Also recall that this isn't Vick's first brush with the law or the kind of black eyes that commish Roger Goodell has so aggressively tried to eliminate. Bottom line: a Vick suspension is a definitely possibility if proof of his involvement is found, and the man can't help your fantasy team if he's not on the field.

However, even when he is on the field, I've got more than my fair share of concerns about his play. Virtually all of Vick's value came as a result of his rushing stats and in spite of his passing numbers. New Falcons coach Bobby Petrino has a different idea for Vick, one that sounds far too pass-first/rush-last for my liking. I fear that making Vick a passing QB is attempting to fit a square peg in a round hole and is destined for failure. If Vick isn't allowed the freedom and creativity to use his legs, as he was a year ago, he will not help fantasy owners with his arm. I've seen nothing from him thus far in his career that suggests he can be a traditional passing quarterback. 

In short, keep an eye on this developing legal situation, but either way, be very cautious with where you take Vick in fantasy drafts this summer. I would not feel comfortable relying on him as a weekly starter.

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About May 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in May 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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