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April 2007 Archives

April 10, 2007

Bengals WR Henry's suspension drops him off fantasy draft boards

NFL commissioner and protector of personal conduct Roger Goodell sent his message on Tuesday when he suspended Titans CB Pacman Jones for a full season and Bengals WR Chris Henry for eight games for their frequent violations of the law and the NFL personal conduct policy. Fantasy owners fondly view Henry as a big-play touchdown machine with his 14 touchdowns in just nine career starts (and 27 games) over two seasons. In limited time last season, Henry scored nine times and recorded nine plays of 20-plus yards and five of 40-plus yards.

Alas, TD-heavy fantasy owners will have to make do without Henry for at least a half-season and maybe more if the kid can't get his head screwed on straight while he's being docked without pay. The suspension has cost Henry a spot on our top-65 WR draft board this offseason, but it opens up an opportunity for several Bengals. With Kelley Washington now in New England, WRs Tab Perry and Antonio Chatman will have a shot to earn snaps, and one has to wonder if the Bengals will look to pass-catching RBs Kenny Watson and Chris Perry more often. Also, don't be surprised to see the Bengals target a receiver or pass-catching TE (Greg Olsen?) in the draft. They've certainly had success identifying WR prospects, and they have the offense to support a third weapon in the passing game — as Henry proved when he wasn't in the doghouse.

April 28, 2007

Russell will see field, fantasy lineups sooner than expected

Wih the first pick in the 2007 NFL draft, the Raiders selected QB JaMarcus Russell. Needless to say, he's not going to be the first pick in your fantasy draft next fall, and in many non-keeper formats, he may not even be drafted at all. The Raiders will likely aim to keep him on the sideline for at least a few games, perhaps by adding a veteran passer or using last year's punching bag, Andrew Walter.

LSU QB JaMarcus RussellHowever, it's worth noting that all of last year's first-round QBs ended up finishing the season as the starter, as did second-rounder Tarvaris Jackson in Minnesota. When he does ditch the clipboard for the huddle, Russell will likely have big-play receivers and the size and strength to make up for the Raiders' shoddy play up front. Still, Oakland has a long way to go before it proves their miserable offense will put up points.

Russell will essentially be a high-upside speculation pick as a backup fantasy quarterback. He's not likely to make a significant impact in Year One, but then again, recall that's exactly what we said about Vince Young. 

Johnson head and shoulders above class of fantasy rookies

Ladies and gentlemen, the first rookie drafted in your fantasy leagues this fall will be Calvin Johnson. Truth be told, it doesn't even matter where Johnson landed, but it certainly doesn't hurt that he appears to have landed in Detroit in an explosive Mike Martz offense and with a capable QB in Jon Kitna. That won't change if indeed he's on his way to Tampa, either, considering Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden are calling the shots there and Joey Galloway is still stretching field and demanding attention from opposing defenses.

Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson

One day, and it's not as far off as you think, Johnson will be the No. 1 WR in fantasy football. Where should he be slotted before he even steps on an NFL playing field? I'm tempted to immediatey make him a top-20 receiver, perhaps as high as No. 17 overall immediately behind Andre Johnson and Marques Colston. I know I'd take him before Darrell Jackson, Hines Ward and Laveranues Coles.

Peterson's fantasy value intriguing in Purple

Traditionally, running backs are the quickest fantasy performers to make an impact, and despite the presence of offensive MVP Chester Taylor, there's no reason Peterson can't follow in the footsteps of last year's stellar rookie class featuring Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai, among others.

Oklahoma RB Adrian PetersonWith a passing game that is led by Tarvaris Jackson and Bobby Wade, the Vikings now have the ability, with Peterson and Taylor, to run the ball as much as 40 times per week. And you might think opposing defenses could simply stack the box, but with their left side of the offensive line featuring Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk, they have the potential to dominate even when defenses know what's coming.

With that line, Peterson has definite opportunity, but his workload with Taylor and his health remain to be seen. With that in mind, I'm tentatively slotting Peterson in at No. 24 on the RB cheat sheet, immediately behind Brandon Jacobs and just ahead of Cadillac Williams, Warrick Dunn and Julius Jones. Peterson has as much upside as any back stuck in a job share. As for Taylor, his value takes a significant hit. He'll likely lose a ton of carries and most, if not all, goal-line looks. Drop him down into the 30s on your RB rankings.   

Ginn has ways to go until fantasy significance

Ted Ginn Jr. was the second receiver taken in the NFL draft, but he's light-years behind Calvin Johnson in fantasy value. As a receiver, he's got the straight-line speed to hand in a huge play every now and then, but he has to show significant improvement in route-running and contributions underneath and across the middle before he can be considered a consistent fantasy weapon.

However, Ginn does have elite special-teams ability, and much like the Bears' Devin Hester, could add a lot of fantasy value to the Dolphins' defense/special teams. If your league counts special-teams touchdowns, bump Miami's team defense up your board a few spots. However, Ginn will likely go undrafted as a fantasy receiver.  

Lynch gets backfield shot in Buffalo

What was your favorite moment of the Anthony Thomas era? His stint as the featured back in Buffalo, ushered in by the Willis McGahee trade, came to a swift conclusion with the selection of Cal RB Marshawn Lynch with the No. 12 pick in the draft.

However, before you drop Thomas off your RB cheat sheet and throw Lynch into your top 25, let's not forget about the growing trend of committee backfields, and the possibility that could be the approach in upstate New York. Lynch has never been the 300-carry workhorse, even at the college level, and he comes with concerns about a lingering back injury. He also still has to learn an NFL playbook and grasp the intracacies of pass protection, while Thomas is an experienced veteran who knows the Bills' scheme inside and out. 

Thomas clearly sees his fantasy value drop; he was at No. 31 on our draft board, partly because we knew he would likely welcome in an impact rookie before the season. Lynch is the more explosive player and probably replaces him in the 30s. Thomas should fall into the 40s where older, complementary backs like Dominic Rhodes reside.  

Quinn will be top rookie fantasy passer

Forget what just happened to Brady Quinn this draft, and believe that he'll be a more productive fantasy player than JaMarcus Russell. Quinn will have every opportunity to claim the starting job for the Browns, who have Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow to catch passes and an upgraded offensive line behind OLT Joe Thomas and free-agent OLG acquisition Eric Steinbach.

Notre Dame QB Brady QuinnThere is also the very salient experience factor. Quinn ran a sophisticated pro-style offense under the tutleage of Charlie Weis for two seasons, and his familiarity with NFL-level schemes, reads and terminology make him as prepared as any quarterback who has come into the league in recent seasons.

Having said that, rookie quarterbacks do not often have a profound impact in fantasy leagues. He will not be on the radar screen as a regular starter and will have a tough time beating out guys like Jake Delhomme, Jon Kitna and Brett Favre as a dependable backup. However, don't hesitate to pull the trigger on Quinn in keeper formats. The Browns' recent investments on offense certainly bode well long term. 

Bowe will have immediate fantasy chances

Kansas City finally addressed a long-standing void when they selected Dwayne Bowe with the 23rd overall pick in the NFL draft. Eddie Kennison is fading fast and Samie Parker has not panned out, so do not be surprised at all to see Bowe getting regular reps in a very capable Chiefs offense.

With Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez attracting most of the opposing defensive attention, there is serious opportunity for a receiver to step up and exploit single coverage, especially since defenses will be dead set on stopping the run first and foremost. Bowe also has the size and strength to make his presence in the red zone, where both Kennison and Parker are non-factors. Calvin Johnson he is not, but Bowe is already well ahead of No. 9 pick Ted Ginn Jr. on our fantasy draft board. 

WR Meachem joins top fantasy offense

It's a crowded receiving corps in New Orleans, but when a top talent like Robert Meachem joins a Saints offense that led the NFL in total yardage last season, fantasy owners have to take notice. We'll have to keep a very close eye on how Meachem competes with Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper for looks as the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers. Obviously, with the Saints choosing Meachem, perhaps they're telling us something about their incumbents' ability to serve as every-down receivers opposite Marques Colston.

There are quite a few cooks in the Saints' kitchen. In addition to Colston, Drew Brees also has Reggie Bush out of the backfield and new TE Eric Johnson over the middle. However, Meachem has great size and adequate speed, and Brees demonstrated he can adequately feed all the football-hungry weapons in this offense. Let's put it this way, there's a place for Meachem on your sleeper list.  

Davis steps into explosive Chargers offense

There's no question that the Chargers needed a wide receiver to complete their offense, especially with Keenan McCardell sent packing. The question is whether Craig Davis, their first-round draft pick, is ready to challenge high-upside target Vincent Jackson and steady veteran Eric Parker for snaps in San Diego's league-leading scoring offense. 

Remember, the Chargers often line TE Antonio Gates up in the slot and out wide, which limits the opportunities for a No. 3 receiver. So Davis will have to ramp up quickly to see adequate snaps this season. With Gates, L.T. and Jackson — whom the Chargers love — taking priority in the passing game, Davis probably won't see enough opportunities to make an instant fantasy impact.

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About April 2007

This page contains all entries posted to Fantasy Footblog in April 2007. They are listed from oldest to newest.

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