At this point, it seems fairly clear that Larry Johnson has sustained a relatively serious foot injury. Most reports only go as far as saying he'll miss at least one game, while more aggressive sources are suggesting he's done for the season. Those of us who own Johnson in fantasy leagues have no choice but to assume the worst.

Priest Holmes, of early millenium fame, may or may not be available. Obviously, given his track record -- he is the Chiefs' all-time leading rusher -- Holmes will get the first crack at replacing Johnson. But head coach Herm Edwards has already made little secret that Holmes, after years away from the game, isn't exactly ready to handle a full load.

Enter Kolby Smith, a rookie fifth-rounder who has good size and turned some heads in the preseason, rushing 20 times for 70 yards and catching three passes for 25 yards. Edwards didn't hesitate to mention that Smith would share the load with Holmes, and those who don't have a chance at Holmes should act accordingly.

There are two things to consider here. First, Holmes is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. He'll almost certainly be over-extended, and he was starting to break down back in 2005. Second, things in K.C. could unravel quickly without L.J., and Smith could get an extended look down the stretch.

Look, this isn't the KC offense of years past; they don't have the Hall of Fame offensive line that paved the way for Holmes and Johnson to become top-five fantasy picks. However, as we've learned from Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, Ron Dayne and Kenny Watson, a back getting carries is a back worth owning.

The doctors say he can go. Marv says he wants to go. Dungy says he could go, if it were a playoff game, but maybe he shouldn't, because it's not. So what in the world do fantasy owners do with Marvin Harrison in Week 9?

What makes this decision so difficult is that Harrison has so little track record with injury that we simply don't know how he plays through them. He hasn't missed multiple games in the same season since 1998 and has only two DNPs in the eight seasons since. He's been the model of fantasy consistency, recording at least 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of those eight campaigns. 

And that's what makes this statement so difficult: Even if he's active, I don't think you use him unless you're absolutely desperate. As in, Devery Henderson or Ashley Lelie desperate.

Look, Harrison has suited up and attempted to play in one game since bruising his knee. That was good for three catches, 16 yards and a lot of watching from the sideline. Dungy has already said that if he does play, Marv will be on a play count. One wrong step and he could be ruled out the rest of the game. And he just so happens to be facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. You may have heard of them.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Marv does give it a go on Sunday. He's the football equivalent of a gym rat, and he's got to be just dying to get in this Super Bowl XLII.5. But just because he's in the Colts' lineup doesn't mean he has to be in yours.  

As significant as Marvin Harrison's inactivity or Steven Jackson's injury, Week Eight served up a not-so-subtle takeaway: The time has come to make weather forecasts a regular part of your Sunday morning pre-game routine. In case you missed it, the Giants and Dolphins met in rainy, soggy London on Sunday and combined for a mere 23 points, 187 passing yards and 492 yards of total offense. They also recorded seven fumbles and two missed field goals. Giants QB Eli Manning registered a mere 59 passing yards, which in turn held fantasy monster Plaxico Burress to a sad 14 receiving yards.

With the calendar turning to November in Week Nine, it is officially time to make sure you check the weather for your fantasy commodities on Sunday mornings. Rain, snow, wind...the wintry elements can wreak havoc on your lineup, much like an elite defense can.

I would never recommend finding a fantasy player who just so happens to play in Arizona or a dome, just to ensure favorable climate conditions. However, the weather could very well be the determining factor between two very comparable players. It most certainly can impact which direction you choose at kicker, and stormy weather often has a profound impact on passing games. You don't want to start a fumbler in the rain, either. So just as you would check the inactive list while setting your lineup, put The Weather Channel in your favorite Sunday morning stops to make sure your fantasy stars won't encounter prohibitive weather. 

Without question, RB Jesse Chatman will attract the most free-agent interest in your league this week after what happened to Ronnie Brown. However, if you're looking deeper in this monster bye week (six teams are off), you have to give Bears QB Brian Griese and Packers TE Donald Lee a long, hard look.

Griese has been a fantasy standout since taking over for Rex Grossman. In four starts, he's averaging a hair over 300 yards per game with eight touchdown passes, including two straight 300-yard games. Even more compelling is his Week Eight opponent. In six games this season, only one quarterback has failed to throw for multiple TD passes against the Lions, and that was the inherently challenged Tarvaris Jackson. Detroit allowed 313 yards and two scores to Josh McCown, 381 yards and four TDs to Donovan McNabb, 248 yards and two TDs to Jason Campbell and 316 yards and two TDs to Jeff Garcia. Heck, Griese himself posted 286 and a pair vs. Detroit...in his first start in two seasons. Clearly, Griese makes for a solid replacement for idle QBs Tony Romo, Kurt Warner or Matt Hasselbeck.

Tight end is an even more troubling spot this week, with Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Todd Heap and Alge Crumpler all taking the week off. Lee is already well on his way to career marks in every relevant receiving category in the Packers' pass-heavy offense, and he may not have to share TE looks with Bubba Franks (knee) this week. Again, it's the matchup that's even more persuasive. Lee draws the Broncos, who were just torched by Heath Miller for two scores last week. It gets even better than that, though. In their last three games, they've ceded an astounding six TE touchdowns to Miller, Matt Spaeth, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark. 

In case you didn't catch the news on Saturday, Pro Bowl and fantasy stud WR Marvin Harrison is still gimpy enough to be considered a game-time decision on Monday night against the Jaguars. Marv is productive enough to roll the dice on, but only if you can make sure you have a MNF option to throw in your lineup if Marv is deactivated.

In most leagues, you will have to add that backup to your roster now, before Week 7 kicks off at 1 pm EST. My two suggestions are as follows:

1) Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez: With Marv out in Week 5, Gonzalez stepped in and hauled in seven catches for 71 yards, both of which were career highs. If Marv is out, you can simply plug-and-play with the new Gonzo.

2) Jaguars WR Reggie Williams: While Gonzalez may not be available, Williams probably is. He's not an ideal play by any means, but if a Jags WR is going to score a TD, it will likely be Williams. His yardage leaves a lot to be desired, but he has scored in three of his last four outings. That's enough to warrant rolling the dice on Marv until tomorrow night.  

So many factors are taken into account when evaluating and handicapping fantasy value during draft season. Past performance, future potential, schedule, environment, surrounding cast, experience...it all plays a role. However, as I watched Adrian Peterson run roughshod over what once was an elite defense and observed Braylon Edwards shatter his career high in TD catches (in Week Six no less!), it occurred to me that far too often we overlook the most critical piece: talent.

Coming into this season, you heard much more about Peterson's job share with incumbent starter Chester Taylor and Edwards' troublesome QB situation than you did about their sheer ability to make plays. Does Taylor's presence matter when Peterson is capable of ripping off a 70-yard touchdown at any moment? Does it take Peyton Manning to recognize a weapon like Edwards and deliver a ball that this Mismatch can haul in? 

Role, climate, surrounding cast, schedule analysis...they are all critical components to projecting fantasy statistics. But I challenge you to limit them to secondary components that you employ merely to seperate players who are of equal ability and talent.

If you had, perhaps you wouldn't be hating yourself for passing on Peterson for Thomas Jones.  

Ever been in this situation: There's two guys you desperately want on waivers, but you only feel like you've got one player you can really drop. Perfect example, you need a RB and either Kenny Watson or Jason Wright will do this week, but you don't yet know which will start and you only have one available roster spot to play with.

My question: Are you absolutely positive you don't have more? No, I am not recommending that  you go ahead and drop a potential long-term stud like Calvin Johson just because he's on the bye. But have you considered merely buying yourself some time to see whether Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis or both are out this week?

What I'm driving at is your kicker and D/ST spots. If you don't have a difference-making PK like Adam Vinateri or the Ravens -- and if your scoring system devalues those positions anyway -- it may be well within your rules to spend Thursday, Friday and even Saturday without a kicker on your roster. If you've got Jason Hansen in your PK spot, wouldn't it make sense to grab a potential Week 6 starting back like Wright? On Sunday morning, when you find out the status of Rudi and Jamal, you can make your fully informed decision, and then drop the loser for a kicker, be it Hansen (if he's still available) or any number of perfectly fine Week Six options such as David Akers, Phil Dawson or Jay Feely. 

The same approach can be used if you've got an underperforming defense such as Denver, Jacksonville or Philly. Look, there are likely plenty of plug-and-play options sitting on your waiver wire, such as the Giants, Titans, Cardinals or Bucs. You're much better off focusing on your backs and receivers, letting these injury situations play out, and worrying about the secondary fantasy positions on Sunday morning.   

Every year we recommend that you insure your top fantasy backs. Every year you scoff at us. And every year, time and time again, backup running backs around the league prove us wise. 

Sammy Morris, Kenton Keith, Derrick Ward, Correll Buckhalter, Ron Dayne, Brian Leonard. In just five weeks of fantasy play, all have stepped in for their highly regarded starters and produced, if not shined. It's easy to chalk such surprises up to the wild and crazy game of fantasy football, but that's cooky talk. The reality is that if you follow sound reasoning, an injury to your stud back does not have to mean the end of your fantasy season.

There's more to fantasy production than mere talent. There is scheme, blocking, schedule and surrounding cast. For the most part, all the first-round backs have it, which is why it's so critical to add their backups. If there was ever a perfect example of that, look at Keith's performance on Sunday. Is he as good a player as Joseph Addai? Of course not, but he's got everything else Addai has going for him, namely Peyton Manning, an elite offensive line and a Colts scheme that spreads defenses Olive Oil thin. Keith gets a start, and voila, he puts up Addai-like digits. 

Even better, owning your top RB's backup also ensures that you've got the guy if indeed your stud is ruled out at game time. You may feel OK about your other backups, but if Addai is ruled out at 4:15 pm (as was the case), what happens if your backup already went off the board at 1 pm? If you've got Keith, you have no such concerns. 

Of course, the Keith factor is now moot. If you hadn't already added him, now everyone knows about him. But learn from your mistakes going forward. Currently, the Browns' Jason Wright and the Bengals' Kenny Watson are readily available, and their respective starters (Jamal Lewis and Rudi Johnson) are already banged up. But even in the interest of protecting your healthy investments, know that guys like Najeh Davenport (Willie Parker), Jesse Chatman (Ronnie Brown), Anthony Thomas (Marshawn Lynch), Ladell Betts (Clinton Portis), Musa Smith (Willis McGahee) and Adrian Peterson (Cedric Benson) should be given a long, hard look for the end of your bench. 

The list of Week Five game-time decisions (GTDs) is long and distinguishable: Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, Laurence Maroney, Travis Henry, Anquan Boldin, Ahman Green, Todd Heap, Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward...the list goes on and on. GTDs in and of themsevles are not necessarily prohibitive. Gameday inactives and starting lineups are publicly announced about an hour prior to every kickoff, and most (if not all) are reported on each respective team's website. Therefore, if you're waiting on Green, all you have to do is log on to www.houstontexans.com at about 12:15 am EST to find out his status.

Unfortunately, it's not always that simple. GTDs become real problematic when their start times are later than the early kickoffs. Take, for example, Addai and Harrison. Can you wait until 45 minutes before the late kickoff to hear about their status? Sure, but the issue is whether you have another late-game alternative to put in your lineup in the event that Marv is ruled out. If all your backup WRs play at noon, you're in trouble. 

So, in the case of your Colts, Travis Henry and Heap, you essentially have two options today.

A) If you don't have late-game reserves who can go in their stead, don't bother with the late announcements and use your bench.

B) If you want the upside of an Addai or Marv in your lineup should they play, scour the waiver wire this morning for late-game reserves such as Green Bay WR James Jones, Denver RB Mike Bell and Chicago TE Greg Olsen. They aren't glamorous options, but they at least give you the flexibility to wait and see if your studs are available.   

I can't tell you how many times I've heard the following during draft season: "I had my starting backs and receivers set, so I jumped on the Bears' defense while I still could." So, I ask you, how's your team looking now that your starting runners, Steven Jackson and Deuce McAllister, are sitting on the sideline?

As much as the current injury epidemic feels like it's of historical proportions, the reality is that injuries are always a huge determinant in football, real and fantasy. And if you don't prepare for them during draft season, you do your roster a huge disservice. Drafting the best kicker or defense in the league may seem like a no-brainer on draft day, but when injuries and bye weeks kick in, where are you going to turn when your studs are banged-up and/or off for a week? Adam Vinatieri is clutch, but I don't think he's carrying your backfield, folks.

While you were reaching to fill the nether regions of your lineup, other owners were building three- and four-deep advantages at back and receiver with guys like Marion Barber, Adrian Peterson, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. And meanwhile, undrafted no-names at kicker and defense -- guys like Nick Folk and Jeff Reed and defenses such as Minnesota and Tennessee -- have been more than capable weekly starters. 

It happens every season. Learn from it.