This past week, my bosses dispatched all of us to predict an order of finish for all eight divisions, as well as a Super Bowl winner and loser. Everything seems pretty clear this time of year, right?
The Chargers, Patriots and Cowboys are the dream of the crop. The Browns are better. The Packers are worse. The Vikings should win the NFC North. The Jets should bounce back. The Dolphins still stink.
Right?
All I need to do is look back at my division picks from a year ago, which I made with my usual confidence, to realize that picking an order of finish might as well be left to a monkey. I had the Ravens in first. I had the Browns last, as most people did. Titans, last. Eagles, first. Giants, last. Bears, yep, first. Packers in third ... behind the Lions (eek). Panthers winning the South. And -- do I admit this? -- the Rams winning the West.
Surely, if someone wanted to find this information on their own, they could, so I might as well have come clean. But seriously, how stupid do I look in retrospect? I can tell you how dumb I feel reprinting my picks: quite.
I made my choices this season and again felt pretty good about them. But I knew that I would look back and think, "How did I not see that coming?" or "Why did I overrate such-and-such team so badly?"
In a way I am kind of curious how I will do this season and, say, how I would do against totally, unbiased, random choices. And because we laid off the office monkey (too many naps) this year, I did it the only other truly random way I knew how: by pulling teams out of a hat.
Below are my picks and those of my right hand from a Dolphins hat that was lying around the office. On Dec. 29, the day after the regular season ends -- my birthday, no less -- or fairly close to it, I promise to revisit my sure-to-be-poor picks and see how they stood up against random choices. Laugh, but I bet they won't be that far off. You just never know how things will go ...
| Division | My real predictions | Random picks from a hat | Comments |
| AFC East | 1. Patriots 2. N.Y. Jets 3. Dolphins 4. Bills | 1. Bills 2. Dolphins 3. N.Y. Jets 4. Patriots | I have a feeling that the random picks might not turn out as well. |
| AFC North | 1. Bengals 2. Browns 3. Steelers 4. Ravens | 1. Ravens 2. Steelers 3. Browns 4. Bengals | I still like my picks better, but who knows? |
| AFC South | 1. Jaguars 2. Colts 3. Titans 4. Texans | 1. Titans 2. Texans 3. Colts 4. Jaguars | Something tells me I have the Texans rated too low at 4th, but I will bet one or both kidneys the Colts won't finish last. |
| AFC West | 1. Chargers 2. Raiders 3. Broncos 4. Chiefs | 1. Chiefs 2. Chargers 3. Raiders 4. Broncos | I swear I didn't cheat when I picked this randomly. |
| NFC East | 1. Eagles 2. Cowboys 3. Redskins 4. Giants | 1. Cowboys 2. Redskins 3. Eagles 4. Giants | This could be exactly where the random picks do better -- and what a slap, considering this is my division. |
| NFC North | 1. Vikings 2. Packers 3. Lions 4. Bears | 1. Lions 2. Packers 3. Vikings 4. Bears | Matt Millen loves random pick! Wishes he could do this every year! |
| NFC South | 1. Panthers 2. Saints 3. Buccaneers 4. Falcons | 1. Saints 2. Falcons 3. Panthers 4. Buccaneers | That random Saints pick hasme nervous, I tell you. |
| NFC West | 1. Seahawks 2. Cardinals 3. 49ers 4. Rams | 1. Rams 2. 49ers 3. Seahawks 4. Cardinals | Let you in on a little secret -- I randomly chose this division for the paper ... |
Comments (6)
Get a clue!
Posted by Wilber | August 29, 2008 10:50 AM
Posted on August 29, 2008 10:50
You said you would bet one of your kidneys the colts won't finish first??? You have to be a complete moron for that comment. Bill polian/TD agree that this is the most TALENTED TEAM they have ever had, you vs Bill Polian, i will go with Mr P. I can't wait to see you donate a kidney at the end of the year!!!! but i'm CALLING YOUR BLUFF RIGHT NOW!!!!!!
Posted by levi | August 29, 2008 9:13 PM
Posted on August 29, 2008 21:13
My "oof the wall" pick is GB Packers...either 8 and 8 or 12 and 4! So much depends on defensive play and no injury @ QB. Don't feel confident Rogers can make it thru the whole year and two aged CB's can hold up for the season. Won't bet the house but feel there is potential..also, would feel more confident with a different GM!
Posted by Russ Marquardt | August 31, 2008 8:09 PM
Posted on August 31, 2008 20:09
Levi, the quote from the author is: "...but I will bet one or both kidneys the Colts WON'T finish LAST." Calm down, these are just for fun. I still wouldn't gamble a body part but I believe that Eric is kidding, though I wouldn't want to put words in his mouth as you have.
My biggest disagreement with him is how he can pick the most disfunctional organization in the NFL, (Your Cincinnati Bengals!), to win their division. If they were good but disfunctional, maybe, but they are a mess on and off the field. Things are pretty bad when your star attraction is a WR who thinks ocho cinco means eighty-five.
Posted by Michael Zhivago | September 1, 2008 11:34 AM
Posted on September 1, 2008 11:34
Michael is right: I bet the Colts won't finish last.
And Michael, you might be right about the Bengals. It's my live-or-die pick for sure!
Posted by Eric Edholm | September 2, 2008 5:24 PM
Posted on September 2, 2008 17:24
"but I will bet one or both kidneys the Colts won't finish last."
Good job Wilber...
Posted by Julius Orange | September 3, 2008 4:00 PM
Posted on September 3, 2008 16:00