We've known for a while that Tarvaris Jackson was likely to win the Vikings' starting QB job, and David Garrard is no stranger to anyone who has watched the Jaguars the past six years. But these teams are taking big risks that could affect the future of their respective head coaches.

The Vikings have a chance to make a statement behind the Bears in a middling NFC North. The Jaguars also play second fiddle, to the Colts, but there is the talent to make a playoff push.

But everything starts with quarterback play. Jackson likely will see eight-man fronts and single coverage outside at times, and Garrard also has the benfit of a strong running game, plus a fine pair of legs to scramble with himself. That's all fine and good, but these two guys must produce to make their coaches, Brad Childress and Jack Del Rio, look smart -- and feel safe.

In Childress' case, it's unlikely that a poor season would mean the end; the Vikings have invested a lot in him, and they made a statement by making him the first head-coaching hire of 10 new coaches around the league in the offseason two years ago. But another poor season would put him in the uncompromising situation of having to win and defend his choice of Jackson.

For Del Rio, it could be it. Despite a 34-30 record in his four seasons, one playoff performance (and an 0-1 record in the postseason) has been the biggest mark against the coach, and the natives are getting a bit feisty. There is talent on this team, especially on defense, and there's no question there is a playoff-caliber roster, even in a crowded AFC field. But if Garrard struggles, the Jaguars won't win. It's as elementary as that. Garrard has put together some fine games, but he's also prone to some real clunkers -- just look at the box scores against the Texans and Titans last year.

These coaches have put a lot of faith in their quarterbacks. Let's see if they respond accordingly.

The PFW fantasy draft is in about five minutes, and I have narrowed my choices (I pick 9th overall) to Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook and Peyton Manning, and I know I will get one of the three based on intelligence gathers from office sources.

It's a busy time around here, as you can imagine, with the season starting in less than 28 hours. I'll be making the drive to Indy tomorrow and will file here from the game -- likely pre-, during and post-game. I am writing a Peyton Manning/Colts feature, win or lose, and a column based on the game action, but likely Saints-slanted. It should be a tremendous scene. Only once have I been on hand for a defending champion's first home game, and that was Rams-Giants in 2002. The TWA Dome was bonkers, even though the Rams had lost in Week One on the road, and I expect nothing different tomorrow night.

Enjoy watching. I will. 

The RCA Dome is rocking, and the scene around the area is about as festive as I can remember around here. The stage is nearly erected at the 50-yard line, and the circus show will begin.

But first, some football. Talked to a guy before coming to the stadium who laughed at the various reports that JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders are close to striking a deal. He officially will be the first top pick to enter the season without a contract since Bo Jackson, who never signed with the Tampa Bay Bucs in 1986. The source told me that the report from Russell's uncle was "misinformed" and that the two sides still have some work to do to get this thing done.

Good news for Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown; bad news for Raiders fans who want to see their guy at some point this season. Solace comes in the form of remembering that Carson Palmer never attempted a pass as a rookie with the Bengals, and he turned out OK.

Back to the game: The PA system is *cranking* and the fans are matching the volume and energy around the building. This is a great celebration for the city of Indianapolis, and few around the area are staying home.

Here are tonight's inactive players, including one interesting name:

Colts

CB Tim Jennings
CB Michael Coe
FS Brannon Condren
LB Clint Session
C-OG Dylan Gandy
OT Charlie Johnson
DT Dan Klecko
DT Quinn Pitcock

Saints

WR Robert Meachem
CB Fred Thomas
RB Pierre Thomas
OG Andy Allerman
OT Jermon Bushrod
TE Mark Campbell
TE Ronnie Ghent

Also, the Saints waived DE Rob Ninkovich and signed QB Tyler Palko.

Clearly, Meachem sticks out. The Saints' first-round pick started horribly this offseason, showing up out of shape and overweight and struggled to heal from surgery pn his right knee. He appears to be a work in progress, so patience will be required with him this season.

I'll file another time or two during the game, likely after halftime.     

Joseph Addai was injured on the first play from scrimmage, and former CFL player Kenton Keith -- whom I drafted in fantasy the other night, believe it or not -- just ripped off a 7-yard run to the left side. Addai's owners in fantasy are freaked.

UPDATE: Addai is back out there. He appears fine. Still, I feel 10 percent better about gamblng on Keith. Addai got hurt every year he was at LSU.

I am not breaking any news here by saying that the Saints are making some back-breaking mistakes at crucial times as they face a two-TD defecit heading into the fourth quarter.

So far, Jason David is playing like he's in awe of Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. Shocking seeing as how he faced them in practice every day for three years.

Jon Stinchcomb's false start on the Saints' final drive in the third quarter, right before Wayne caught a 31-yard pass to put the Colts in the red zone again, was a killer. 

Adam Vinatieri's 32-yard field goal just made it 27-10 with 14:12 left. 

Quite a performance here tonight by last year's world champs. I don't call them "defending" because, like recent other champs, no one actually wants to be called as much.

I wrote a column about the Saints and what they can take from this game for a column that will be posted on the main page early Friday morning, so here are a few idle Colts thoughts:

Where was Anthony Gonzalez? All summer we heard about how advanced he was for a rookie and how the Clts were throwing a ton at him. Peyton spent extra time showing Gonzalez tape of the best slot receiver he has had (not named Dallas Clark, anyway) -- Brandon Stokley. When Stokley was healthy, the Colts were hard to beat that 2004 season. But other than an overthrow when Manning was hit in the pocket and one play that was wiped out by penalty, I didn't see Gonzalez as the target. Maybe I missed one. He certainly wasn't on the field a lot.

Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson played nice games, though they were barely heard from. They took away the deep stuff when the Saints fell behind, and that's crucial. If those guys can do their jobs, safeties Antoine Bethea and Bob Sanders look very good. They are extremely active against the run, even when they are in coverages designed to take away the deep pass.

Another new starter, WLB Freddie Keiaho, had a nice first start. He came up with an interception and was in on six tackles, showing good recognition and awareness vs. the run and the pass. He looked like the next in a long line of very good weak-siders the Colts have churned out. Credit Bill Polian for constantly stockpiling good, athletic talent at the position, allowing the team to essentially redshirt these guys and get them ready to take their place in line.

And Manning was, well, Manning. He was not spectacular, but he was damned good, especially when he got the looks he wanted. The Saints were in deep trouble when they could not stop the run in their two-deep coverage, and he found a patsy in Jason David -- and his non-assisting safeties -- to pick on.

That's all from Indy. I am going to turn in for the night. Be sure to check out my column if you are a Saints fan. I want to help get you down off the bridge, if possible. 

Dolphins-Redskins: Gutsy call by Cam Cameron going for it on 4th down right at the end of the half, and Trent Green makes a terrific throw across his body to TE Justin Peelle. It’s cliché, but that sends a message to the team that the coach is not messing around here.

Browns-Steelers: The Steelers couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, but kudos to Romeo Crennel for pulling the trigger and canning Charlie Frye. As colleague Mike Wilkening shouted out after the move, “He might never play another down in the NFL.” Well said.

Eagles-Packers: I really like this Packers defense and think they can be this year’s Raiders. But boy, they have to develop some offense and balance this thing out. The Eagles got off to a slow start but found their rhythm a bit and got some nice plays from Kevin Curtis and Brian Westbrook.

Vikings-Falcons: I love (love!) when big men (a) intercept passes and (b) run them back long distances. And you wonder why coaches make the bigguns run those gassers in training camp? Tarvaris Jackson hasn’t had a ton of success so far, overthrowing some guys, but Adrian Peterson has made some nice runs. What is odd is that the Vikings have run the ball almost exclusively to the right and not left, behind their best O-linemen.

Patriots-Jets: I guess Randy Moss’ hamstring is OK, but he doesn’t look especially fast. He just gets open. I always marveled at that about him, how he was able to run even when he wasn’t completely healthy. UPDATE: Ellis Hobbs just returned a kickoff — the longest in NFL history — 108 yards for a touchdown to kick off the second half.

More as the games go on …

I’d put the Browns on the “Down” list, but their ineptitude was hardly surprising. We know how you feel, dog …

Up

Panthers: I picked a Carolina win in St. Louis, but I was thinking something in the high 20s or low 30s. I was very impressed from what I saw with their defense, and it was a nice surprise to see Drew Carter make two nice TD catches. The running game also made its mark (186 yards on 38 carries), and Jake Delhomme was superb (three TDs, 125.7 rating). But it was the defense, which held Steven Jackson to 61 total yards on 19 touches, caused him to fumble twice and held Marc Bulger to 167 yards on 42 attempts. Pretty impressive.

Randy Moss: For a guy who has practiced for about a week since August 1, he sure looked ready to contribute in a big way. The Jets clearly didn’t think he was going to beat them, as a few times they played Cover-1 and gave CB Justin Miller little help over the top. Moss glides and might not look fast, but his nine catches and 183 yards (including a 51-yard TD) prove he still has that thing. That thing got him open a lot today, and the Patriots rolled. It didn’t hurt that their pass blocking and blitz pickup were tremendous today. Tom Brady barely got touched.

Mario Williams: Take that Reggie Bush! Williams, courtesy of a 38-yard fumble return for a touchdown, now has more TDs than Bush: 1-0. But Williams had more than that. It might have been the best game of his pro career, with five tackles, three hurries and two sacks to go along with the TD. He harassed Chiefs OLT Damion McIntosh a few times and supplied good pressure as the young Texans defense held the Chiefs’ offense to 219 yards. We knew Larry Johnson would be used less than normal, but the Texans shut down Tony Gonzalez and Damon Huard. Great start to the season for Williams and Co.

Down

Jaguars: What exactly happened? Didn’t watch a ton of this game, but it was clear that the run game never got going on offense and the run defense was absolutely horrendous. How about this for a crazy statistic: The Titans, who were dead last in time of possession last season, held the ball for 36:55. The Jaguars, who were second in the NFL in time of possession in 2006, had it for only 23:05. That just shouldn’t happen with Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor (why only seven carries?) and David Garrard. The clock is ticking on this talented team …

Chiefs: Down from what, I am not sure, because I said from the preseason I thought they were a six-win team. But this was a bad performance in every way imaginable. The Texans kept the chains moving with the run game and made some nice passes downfield, too. They also had the special-teams edge. And offensively, with Johnson limited to 17 touches, they had few other options. It’s going to get a little better when Johnson can carry his standard load, but he doesn’t play any other positions. That six-win prediction might be a bit generous after this first look.

Steven Jackson: Maybe there will be an outcry that the guy didn’t touch the ball in the preseason, but some of the blame has to be put on the Rams’ offensive line, which did not block all that well. Losing OLT Orlando Pace will hurt any group’s production, but the line was sluggish even before Pace left with a shoulder injury. Still, a good deal of the blame goes on Jackson, too, who lost two fumbles and had a long run of 13 yards. Even Marc Bulger had a longer scramble (14 yards).

You know it’s Week One when (before the Sunday night and Monday night games) Chris Brown is the NFL’s leading rusher, Josh McCown has the most passing yards and Jason Hanson and Drew Carter are tied for the league lead in points.

And don’t overlook Week One in the big scheme. Colleague Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe had this very important statistic in his Sunday NFL notes today: Since 1978, when the NFL went to a 16-game schedule, teams that won in Week One were twice as likely to make the playoffs as the losers were. Throwing out the strike-shortened ’87 season, 216 of the 410 Week One winners (this is before today, of course) made the playoffs. Of the 410 Week One losers, only 96 made the playoffs.

Some very interesting things have happened today so far, not the least significant of which was the Chargers’ defensive effort against the Bears. They made big plays when they had to, and like a great pitcher, they won without their best stuff, at least on offense. Credit that coaching staff for adjusting a little better than the Bears did in terms of handicapping the flow of the game and changing their plan of attack.

A quick prediction: I think Eli Manning has a nice game tonight and the Giants surprise the Cowboys. Yes, I picked Dallas in the magazine, but I am changing my pick right here. It’s going to take some good bounces for the Giants to win this game, including some help for OLT Dave Diehl on Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware, but I get the feeling we might be talking about Eli’s big game.

Statistically, you couldn't get much worse than the Titans and Cardinals were defensively last season. The Titans ranked dead last in yards allowed, the Cardinals 29th. The Titans were 30th vs. the pass, the Cards were 30th vs. the run. They were 31st and 29th, respectively, in points allowed. Each unit only managed to save face in one major category, really: The Titans were a respectable 15th in interceptions, and the Cardinals were 14th in sack percentage.

Other than that, they sucked.

But Sunday and Monday were different stories altogether. My, my, what a difference.

The Titans improved the secondary in the offseason and added MLB Ryan Fowler, who won the starting job. But they did not add a pass rusher, which many felt was a considerable need. The unit that took the field Sunday looked, at times, dominant, though they could have been a little tighter on coverage (not much Cortland Finnegan can do on that TD catch) and maybe a little better tackling. But they were aggressive, assertive and active. Those are three pretty good "A's" to be. In a game where Kyle Vanden Bosch didn't make a tackle and Keith Bullck made only three, the Titans were spectacular, led by DEs Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy (two combined sacks) and DBs Finnegan (three passes defended) and Chris Hope (PD, fumble recovery).

It appeared that the Jaguars had made some nice adjustments in the third quarter, putting together drives of 59 and 72 yards, and though those ended without points (the first ended on downs, the second by fumble), they were improvements. But the Titans counterpunched by holding the Jags to two three-and-outs on their final two drives, netting only two yards. Impressive stuff from Jim Schwartz's group. If they keep this up, he could end up a more serious head-coaching candidate this offseason or next. 

As for the Cardinals, their coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, relied on some tremendous coverage from the DBs and played aggressively, too. He sent the dogs, mixing his defensive looks and fronts, but doing so while keeping the proverbial foot on the 49ers' neck. I think people around the league recognized that the Cards had some fine individual talent. SS Adrian Wilson might be the best at his position. LB Karlos Dansby has become a fine playmaker. No one likes blocking DL Darnell Dockett. And MLB Gerald Hayes routinely comes up as one of the more underrated players around. But this was a great team effort.

CB Eric Green, despite muffing a potential game-clinching fumble recovery, was stout in coverage. The Cardinals erased TE Vernon Davis from the game and held RB Frank Gore in check. QB Alex Smith was on the run a lot and was one or two missed tackles on his scrambles away from having a miserable night. Other guys who impressed me include LB Calvin Pace, who lined up in a few spots and has revitalized his career, and FS Terrence Holt, who ran around and got in on a lot of plays.

All told, these two teams made major improvements -- for one game, I remind you -- from last season's debacles. Keeping things up might lead to playoff berths. But let's not get ahead of ourselves ...