I had a long chat the other night with my old friend Jon, the Patriots fan, and we talked, among other things, about the Patriots' new passing offense, and we wondered ... who gets left behind in this new world of WR wealth?

I had to think about it for a while. Not Randy Moss — he's too good and too motivated now to prove people wrong. Not Wes Welker — they gave up second- and seventh-rounders for the guy and see him as the perfect slot receiver. Not Benjamin Watson, who at times played like a No. 1 option in lieu of a real one last season and is getting better and more comfortable in the offense.

Certainly, Reche Caldwell — and this is assuming he even makes the team, for crying out loud — will catch fewer passes than he did a year ago. But I consider him to be a nice overachiever who never was meant to be a No. 1 wideout. Instead, I look to Donté Stallworth.

Guy hasn't caught a pass for the Patriots yet, and he has to feel like things are a bit crowded now. I suspect that Welker, not Moss, will lead the team in catches, but that Moss will be the big-play guy. Watson should be a factor in the red zone, and the running backs can't be overlooked. So what does this leave for Stallworth and Caldwell?

And for that matter, how ridiculous are Brady's numbers going to be?

So I did a little arithmetic and predicted that Brady would set a career high in passing yards (though not attempts or completions) and tie his touchdown mark of 28 from 2004, when he had Deion Branch and David Givens playing for new contracts.

I took this too far, incidentally, invoking the powers of Microsoft Excel and all its wonders, and came up with these two little spreadsheets forecasting the Patriots' passing and receiving numbers for the 2008 season.

First, the receiving totals:

Player	Receptions	Yards	Avg.	TDs
Wes Welker	66	704	10.7	2
Randy Moss	63	1,017	16.1	11
Benjamin Watson	52	675	13.0	6
Donté Stallworth	39	594	15.2	4
Kevin Faulk	37	291	7.9	1
Reche Caldwell	31	377	12.2	1
Laurence Maroney	26	231	8.9	0
David Thomas	21	263	12.5	2
Kelley Washington	17	202	11.9	1
Sammy Morris	14	104	7.4	0
Kyle Brady	10	108	10.8	1
Chad Jackson	10	106	10.6	1
Garrett Mills	8	78	9.8	0
others	5	33	6.6	0
Heath Evans	5	31	6.2	0
TOTALS	404	4814	11.9	30

And now, the QB numbers:

QB	Completions	Attempts	Yards	TDs	INTs
Tom Brady	378	596	4,538	28	14
Matt Cassel	23	41	212	1	1
Randy Moss	1	2	40	1	0
others	2	4	24	0	0
TOTALS	404	643	4,814	30	15

You'll notice a few things. Number one, I don't think Chad Jackson will be any kind of significant factor this season. I suspect he'll start out on the PUP list and maybe get some action late, but ultimately, his sophomore season (along with his rookie year) will be a wash. He'll enter his third year as a player on the hot seat.

Next, no Troy Brown. I know Bill Belichick has welcomed back his receiver, and the Patriots probably could use him in some role. But I suspect Brown will opt to spend more time with his family and not play this season. He might not be fully healthy right now, anyway.

This could end up being way off, who knows? But it was a fun experiment to run. I am getting started on the other 31 teams right now (tongue planted firmly in cheek) ... 

Do all the Titans’ backs capitalize the fourth letters in their first names? First, there’s LenDale White, and there’s also DonTrell Moore. Maybe that’s why Chris Brown and Travis Henry left. No truth to the rumor that rookie Chris Henry will be asked to go by ChrIs — yet, that is.

Just got off the phone with a source close to Steve Smith, who filled me in on some of the nuts and bolts of the new contract he signed:

• The deal is for $44,950,000 over six years
• It puts him among the top five receivers in the NFL.
• In terms of new money and new years, he's behind only Marvin Harrison.
• $17 million in guaranteed money in the form of a signing bonus and two roster bonuses.
• The two sides have been working on this since January of last year.

Smith wants to retire a Panther, and this should allow him to. He outplayed his contract two years ago (and last year, despite the injuries/offensive struggles of the Panthers) and has a deal befitting his talent and production.

The NFL is, and has been, on a roll for some time now. The theme of the league has been to expand, improve and keep the money train rolling. And, no sarcasm at all, I have been on board with much of the progression.

That's not to say that the league isn't a touch impersonal or seemingly larger than life at times. But I am reminded now and again about nice touches the NFL doesn't leave out, such as a story I heard from a fan just the other day. This diehard Bears fan bought Super Bowl tickets for him and his young son on a Thursday night before the big game, and early Friday morning, during a pickup game of hoops with friends, the father ruptured his Achilles tendon.

It's not just the athletes who get hurt, folks. I should know (torn ACL, silly hoops game also).

So the man decides it's Florida or Bust anyway. His son wanted to go and so did he. They went and started climbing the long ramp to their nosebleed seats when an NFL employee saw the man, told him that she could reseat him, his son and brother in handicapped seating, which just so happened to be a lot better seats. It's things like this that make me think the NFL hasn't gotten too big or too monolithic.

But I wonder just how smart adding a 17th regular-season game, as is being discussed, really is. There are merits, including assuaging the season-ticket holders who lament having to purchase two essentially pointless preseason games as part of their package (and that includes parking, condiments, etc.), as well as the added revenue, especially in regards to TV.

Other than those benefits, however, there stand major obstacles in the way of making this actually happen. The schedule — either starting a week early (in this year's case, that means Labor Day) or ending a week later into February — would be prohibitive. The collective bargaining agreement, especially in regards to sharing revenue and recalculating the salary cap, would need to be revamped. And the owners would have to be convinced that they would make enough money to make this odd-game schedule happen.

Never mind what it does to the perfect balance of divisional and conference games. And we haven't even mentioned the logistics of where the 17th game would be played — some would be overseas, perhaps others at neutral sites.

It seems a tall hurdle. And though we should applaud Roger Goodell for examining new ways to achieve league growth and globalize the NFL, this appears a bit too chimerical at this point. 

Look, I'll mince my words just a tad because I know I will hear from the legion of Packers fans who frequent this site — and we thank you for your regular attention — but what the heck is Brett Favre mad about exactly?

I mean, come on. I give Ted Thompson straight A's — if not for his work as a general manager, then certainly for his focus on improving the team as best he can and not just appeasing a legend who has only a present and not a future with the team. Maybe Favre will hold some kind of cushy front-office title when he retires, but I highly doubt it.

Favre has nothing to complain about. Randy Moss essentially could dictate which team he wanted to play for, considering no one was going to take on that $9.75 million base salary. He wanted to play for New England, plain and simple, and he let the Raiders know that. There are reports that the Packers offered the Raiders a third-round pick, and I believe it.

In essence, they got James Jones — whom Nolan Nawrocki rated as a seventh-round pick — with that No. 3, which has to bother Packers fans, as well as Favre, instead of Moss. But if Favre indeed wants to be the leader of this team and fulfill his obligations for coming back, he should think a little more before he speaks out about the team's missteps in his eye. What a mistake it would be for Thompson to load with offensive weapons for last season and this one instead of rebuilding off of a surprising 8-8 season.

This team still has its flaws — and I am starting to think that Favre is one of them.

The standards we hold Favre to probably are too inflated. I get that. I know he gets it. So it's time for him to focus on being a good soldier and not hold the team captive with his comments. He needs to build morale, not deflate it. He's only essential to this team in that he is the best QB option it has. I am not convinced Aaron Rodgers will be the long-term answer. The Packers are a young team that needs Favre's leadership, and this is not going to help things out.

I must admit, Garrett Wolfe does intrigue me, even if I think the Bears reached on what essentially could be a luxury pick. The Bears traditionally sign their picks early, and this year is no exception. This just rolled in from the Bears — we believe Wolfe became the first 2007 draft pick to sign:

LAKE FOREST, IL — The Chicago Bears signed running back Garrett Wolfe to a four-year contract today, the first of the 255 overall selections in the 2007 NFL Draft to reach agreement with their respective team.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Wolfe was selected by the Bears in the third round (93rd overall) out of Northern Illinois, the third of nine players chosen by Chicago in this year’s draft.

Any day now, you can read our 2007 season preview magazine, which has landed safely in our hot little hands here in the office and soon should be in yours. I think we made some nice changes to this year's mag and offer some very good features. The Kickoff section is a must-read, too.

One section that has not changed is the player ratings story, highlighted by the Top 50 players list. It always generates controversy and discussion around the league — and I must say I thought colleague Mike Wilkening did an extremely thorough (every time I write/hear/see this word, I think of Big Lebowski: "He's a good man ... and thorough") job of compiling this year's list, which is headed up by LaDainian Tomlinson at No. 1, natch.

Taking things a step further, Dan Arkush broke down the list, team by team, to show the breakdown. And now, I bring it to you:

San Diego (5)

RB LaDainian Tomlinson (1)
TE Antonio Gates (18)
NT Jamal Williams (24)
LB Shawne Merriman (25)
OG Kris Dielman (48)

Indianapolis (4)

QB Peyton Manning (2)
WR Marvin Harrison (12)
DE Dwight Freeney (16)
WR Reggie Wayne (30)

New England (3)

QB Tom Brady (3)
DE Richard Seymour (21)
NT Vince Wilfork (45)

Cincinnati (3)

QB Carson Palmer (4)
WR Chad Johnson (11)
RB Rudi Johnson (40)

Seattle (3)

OT Walter Jones (27)
LB Julian Peterson (28)
RB Shaun Alexander (44)

Philadelphia (3)

QB Donovan McNabb (33)
OG Shawn Andrews (36)
RB Brian Westbrook (38)

Arizona (3)

WR Larry Fitzgerald (20)
WR Anquan Boldin (46)
S Adrian Wilson (50)

Kansas City (2)

RB Larry Johnson (5)
TE Tony Gonzalez (41)

St. Louis (2)

RB Steven Jackson (6)
WR Torry Holt (14)

Denver (2)

CB Champ Bailey (7)
WR Javon Walker (26)

Carolina (2)

DE Julius Peppers (8)
WR Steve Smith (15)

New Orleans (2)

QB Drew Brees (9)
OT Jammal Brown (35)

Chicago (2)

LB Brian Urlacher (17)
DT Tommie Harris (34)

Baltimore (2)

S Ed Reed (22)
OT Jonathan Ogden (43)

Minnesota (2)

DT Kevin Williams (23)
OG Steve Hutchinson (32)

Pittsburgh (2)

S Troy Polamalu (29)
NT Casey Hampton (31)

N.Y. Giants (2)

DE Mike Strahan (47)
TE Jeremy Shockey (49)

Miami (1)

DE Jason Taylor (10)

San Francisco (1)

RB Frank Gore (13)

Houston (1)

WR Andre Johnson (19)

Dallas (1)

CB Terence Newman (37)

Buffalo (1)

WR Lee Evans (39)

Cleveland (1)

TE Kellen Winslow (42)

Teams without Top 50 players: N.Y. Jets, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, Washington, Green Bay, Detroit, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. 

I'd love to hear your feedback. Of course, you need to buy the magazine to hear the reasoning for each pick, but I am sure you guys have your opinions on who got left out or shouldn't have made the list, or who needs to be higher/lower. Bring it. 

I just got back from the NFL’s Rookie Premiere weekend, which consisted of two events — on Friday, there was the EA Sports Madden Bowl, where rookies faced off against each other in Madden ’07, and on Saturday, they went out to the Los Angeles Coliseum to take action shots for their football cards. The entire weekend was sponsored by the NFL Players Association.

The list of invitees was distinguished. It included the top four picks in the draft, top RB Adrian Peterson, QB Brady Quinn and even Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. All told, there were 28 rookies — 30 were expected to attend, but LSU’s Craig Davis and LaRon Landry missed the event to attend the funeral of a friend — in L.A. for the weekend, and colleague Mike Wilkening and I had, at times, unfettered access to each of the guys.

There were plenty of highlights. The players for the most part were extremely laid back, happy that the trials of the draft process were behind them and glad that they have gotten their feet wet with minicamps and OTAs with their respective teams.

Friday’s event was in Santa Monica in the ballroom of the Loews Hotel, and there was a head-to-head Madden tournament featuring four first-round battles:

JaMarcus Russell vs. Michael Bush
Paul Williams vs. Kenny Irons
Ted Ginn vs. Antonio Pittman
Dwyane Jarrett vs. Marshawn Lynch

I hung out by Russell vs. Bush for most of the first round, as I was working on a Russell feature for the magazine. He was loose as a goose. He took time to answer his cell phone two or three times during the game, and though he and Bush rarely spoke, he spoke highly of his new teammate. Everyone I talked to couldn’t believe how big Russell was, and as someone who is 6-foot-5, it is rare that I look up to someone eye to eye. Russell is a monster in person.

Irons is a trip. He’s a talker, no doubt about it, and he was crowing all weekend. Williams, who won the tournament, beating Bush on a last-second field goal in the Madden finals, is also a talker. One of the knocks on him coming out of the draft evaluation process was that he lacked confidence; that surely wasn’t evident when it came to gaming.

Most of the media that attended the event Friday were from radio and TV outlets, including G4 — the gamer cable network. It was a first-class affair and fun for the most part, though a lot of the players who were not involved in the games bugged out early.

Saturday was gray and overcast during the morning as the first group of players — Anthony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Smith among them — stretched and got ready to shoot their parts. They rotated the players between several stations: shooting still shots around the Coliseum, doing action shots, signing tons of autographs, and when time permitted, taking time to do a few interviews.

Time permitted. The access to the players was fantastic, and most of them were willing to talk about all things football.

Brian Leonard is excited to be in St. Louis, where the coaching staff has played him exclusively at running back, not fullback, so far. He thinks he can be a perfect complement to Steven Jackson and chip in on special teams. Leonard thinks he’ll rent a place his first year with the Rams and buy a condo back home in New Jersey, where he maintains a close relationship with his brother. “After four years, my contract is up,” Leonard said. “Who knows? My football career might be over. I want to establish my roots and prepare for life after football.”

My guess is that he’s going to be quite successful — during and after his playing days.

John Beck is a very engaging young man who seems quite confident. He was excited to talk about new coach Cam Cameron and didn't appear to be in a rush to need a starting spot. "I just want to learn things as quickly as I can," Beck said. "I think the opportunity will present itself if I can learn the offense and show what I can do." He and his family — his wife and five-week-old child — are currently on the market for a house and hope to find a place soon.

Bush isn’t sure if the DVD he sent around to teams helped or not. “I mean, I slid to Round Four,” he said. “But everything happens for a reason, and I am glad to be a Raider.” What else is he supposed to say? He seemed disappointed he wasn’t drafted in Round Two or Three, but he put on a relatively good face. He said this weekend was the first time he has been able to “kick back” in some time.

Like the team’s first-rounder, Aaron Ross, WR Steve Smith was surprised to be a Giant. “I had no idea they were interested in me,” Smith said. “But it’s a good situation. I see what Plaxico (Burress) has done; I see what Amani (Toomer) has done. I know they want to establish that No. 3 (WR) spot. So I know I can get a chance if I go to work and show the team what I can do.” Smith already has made an impression on coach Tom Coughlin, who said Smith caught the ball softly — there was no “poof” when it hit his hands — in the last minicamp. But Smith said impressing a coach in a May workout and proving himself in training camp are “two totally different things.”

There were a ton of other interesting nuggets to share, and I will get them to you sometime on Monday — I had to write this in the airport and on the airplane because of some internet restrictions and limitations in L.A. Long story. Tell you later …

Anytime you make a list of this nature, rating the top 50 players in the NFL, you’re going to have debate.

No love for my guy.

How could you leave this dude off the list?

Not enough of a certain position. Too much of another.

There is no list that will please everyone, and there are bound to be controversies, but let me tell you I thought that Mike Wilkening — and this was the first time he did the Top 50 for PFW — did a heck of a job. I spent the weekend with him out in L.A. at the NFL's Rookie Premiere, and we talked about some of the feedback this blog got, and let me tell you that Mike put a ton of thought and time into researching this.

He called scouts, GMs, position coaches and other talent evaluators around the league for their input, and he collectively came up with a comprehensive list that has made some fans happy and others … well, like we said, a lot of tough critics out there.

I decided to boil down the comments a little bit and see what common themes there were. Here’s what I came up with:

• Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow have no love from the fans. Maybe too many tight ends in general.
• Ray Lewis is someone a number of fans liked and thought should still be on the list.
• Marcus Stroud was an omission in some people’s minds, and there was a lack of defensive players as well overall. Shaun Rogers was mentioned a bit, too.
• Roy Williams and T.O. were the receivers that fans thought should be included.

Now, without speaking to or for Wilky, I should say that I thought he hit it mostly on the button. I, too, would like to see more out of Winslow and Shockey to firm up their places on this list, but in terms of ability, there’s no question that they are both rare athletes who are in the top five at their position. Whether you think tight ends belong on the list in numbers is another debate, but I will say that the position is more valuable than it was a decade ago.

And consider this:

There just aren’t as many great defensive players. Teams are built more on schemes. Name five premier linebackers in the game today. I’ll spot you Brian Urlacher, Shawne Merriman and Julian Peterson. Is Lance Briggs that good? Adalius Thomas — jack-of-all-trades, but master of how many? Al Wilson likely will retire. DeMarcus Ware could be that guy but is not there yet. And you can’t say that Lewis or Zach Thomas is in peak physical condition anymore. They are productive players who have passed their peak.

Three ends are outstanding: Julius Peppers, Jason Taylor and Dwight Freeney, and Freeney had an off year. So did Richard Seymour, who for now is a notch below those guys in terms of playmaking. Ty Warren was outstanding last season, but we need to see more to be sure. Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are coming off injuries. And there aren’t a ton of dominant tackles these days. Kevin Williams, Tommie Harris (he was a Pro Bowler if he didn’t get hurt), Jamal Williams and Casey Hampton top the list, but it drops off from there.

Champ Bailey is the only shutdown corner in the league, period. I love Terence Newman, Nate Clements, Rashean Mathis … but I watched each of those guys get burned last season. On Mike’s original list, I saw that Adrian Wilson (50) was omitted. That was my mistake. Add Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, and you’ve got your elite DBs. Brian Dawkins turns 34 this year, and though he had a nice season and should be good again, I agree with Mike that he falls just outside the top 50.

Think about it: We’re talking about the 50 best of the best. That’s an average of less than 1.6 players per team. And if we break positions down to QB, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, offensive guard, center, defensive tackle, defensive end, outside linebacker, inside linebacker, cornerback and safety, that’s fewer than four players (3.8) per position that can make the list. QBs and running backs will take up a good portion of the list by nature of the positions, so it’s tough to get the proper love for the guys in the trenches, who not only get overlooked by you and me, but also by league sources.

It’s tough, guys. I wish there was a perfect way to do this, but there just isn’t. The feedback is great; keep it coming. I thought Mike did a terrific job, but as we know, not everyone will be satisfied with such an undertaking.

This was passed on by Patriots executive director of media relations Stacey James:

The Hill family has established two funds in Marquise Hill's memory. In lieu of flowers, donations can be made in Marquise's name to either the Ma'shy Hill Health Care and Education Fund or to the Greater St. Stephen's Full Gospel Baptist Church. Ma'shy Hill is Marquise's 20-month-old son. The address information for both funds are listed below.
 
Ma'shy Hill - Health Care and Education Fund
Regions Bank
8440 Jefferson Highway
1st Floor
Baton Rouge, LA 70809
225-924-9308
attn: Maureen Dunham, Private Banking
 
or
 
Greater St. Stephen's Full Gospel Baptist Church
2240 Simon Blvd
New Orleans, LA 70113
504-859-6800