Nearly everyone I talk to still thinks the Colts are among the five best teams in the NFl still, or at least darned close, and most people seem to think they are good enough to keep their reign over the AFC South. But the injury to C Jeff Saturday -- compounded with all they have gone through to date -- makes me really concerned about their season.

The reports are that he'll either miss roughly six weeks (if he rests) or close to 11 weeks (if he has surgery), and neither situation is that encouraging. QB Peyton Manning, who's no sure bet to play a week from Sunday night, has an almost psychic link with Saturday, much as he does with WR Marvin Harrison, another Colt coming off an injury as it turns out.

Manning and Saturday are perhaps the best QB-center tandem of the past decade, and when it comes to protections and calling audibles at the line, there might nary be a better pair.

Are the Colts, with all their defensive injuries too, in jeopardyof losing their grip on the division? You've got the Jags, oh so close the past couple of years, right on their heels. You have a Titans team that nearly beat them twice last season, has defensive talent and are as well coached as any club in the league. And please, please do not snooze on the Texans, who I feel might be the division's big surprise this season, and I regret picking them a strong fourth in the South.

This past week, my bosses dispatched all of us to predict an order of finish for all eight divisions, as well as a Super Bowl winner and loser. Everything seems pretty clear this time of year, right?

The Chargers, Patriots and Cowboys are the dream of the crop. The Browns are better. The Packers are worse. The Vikings should win the NFC North. The Jets should bounce back. The Dolphins still stink.

Right?

All I need to do is look back at my division picks from a year ago, which I made with my usual confidence, to realize that picking an order of finish might as well be left to a monkey. I had the Ravens in first. I had the Browns last, as most people did. Titans, last. Eagles, first. Giants, last. Bears, yep, first. Packers in third ... behind the Lions (eek). Panthers winning the South. And -- do I admit this? -- the Rams winning the West.

Surely, if someone wanted to find this information on their own, they could, so I might as well have come clean. But seriously, how stupid do I look in retrospect? I can tell you how dumb I feel reprinting my picks: quite.

I made my choices this season and again felt pretty good about them. But I knew that I would look back and think, "How did I not see that coming?" or "Why did I overrate such-and-such team so badly?" 

In a way I am kind of curious how I will do this season and, say, how I would do against totally, unbiased, random choices. And because we laid off the office monkey (too many naps) this year, I did it the only other truly random way I knew how: by pulling teams out of a hat.

Below are my picks and those of my right hand from a Dolphins hat that was lying around the office. On Dec. 29, the day after the regular season ends -- my birthday, no less -- or fairly close to it, I promise to revisit my sure-to-be-poor picks and see how they stood up against random choices. Laugh, but I bet they won't be that far off. You just never know how things will go ...

So I am letting my friend Brian Lipman pinch-hit this week, writing why he will be sitting out the fantasy season but loving the NFL even more in the process. Take it away, Brian ...

Oh yes, I have finally done it. After many unsuccessful tries, I have quit fantasy football once and for all. This is the year where no last-minute pleas or desperate grovels by a hard-luck commissioner will get me to change my mind. I am out and boy, am I relieved. I can return to watching the best sport in the world how it is supposed to be followed — cheering exclusively for teams.

How novel! I won’t care if D.J. Hackett or some other second-rate wideout gets tackled on the 1-yard line, or if a holding call takes my stud RB out of the red zone on a second-and-1.

The one exciting part of fantasy football is the draft. You get to razz your friends for reaching for rookie receivers, picking their hometown players and not monitoring the injury list. It usually involves some screaming, a decent amount a drinking, and certainly a ton of anger when novices exceed their time limit or don’t realize that RB depth is important.

But sadly, the same technology that has made it easy to follow your players (you used to have to keep the Monday paper) has also made the draft more impersonal. Now folks prefer to draft online from the safety and comfort of their personal “war rooms,” afraid to reveal their secret draft materials in a common area. (Ooh … LT on the top of your hot list — how daring!) With the draft becoming just another IM chat, the male-bonding aspect of my favorite part of fantasy football is greatly diminished. And after the draft day, it is all downhill.

I hear all the time how people thank fantasy for giving them a reason to watch games. Even the NFL has bought into this since they have failed in getting anyone in any other country to give a damn about their sport.

If you need an excuse to watch a football game, then I pity you. Go spend your time scouring your leagues’ waiver wire for a sub WR since all your studs are on bye. I promise that no matter who you pick up he’ll have three catches for 41 yards. Have a monkey choose, I dare you.

Agonize over which mediocre RB you should choose, and he’ll get a 60 yard TD called back for an illegal block by the flanker away from the play. Spend your week analyzing the stats of the tight ends who are just going to stay in and block.

I’ll be kicking back, cracking open a cold one and watching glorious games where highly skilled athletes play a team sport to win each and every week, with little regard for stats (well, there are contract years.) Football is about winning games and I am thrilled to get back to the essence of the sport that I love.

Brian Lipman is a former 4 time fantasy football champion and a regular contributor to “The Real Chicago.” Feel free to leave comments, but he really couldn’t care less what you think. 

A couple of days ago, I wrote about the dangers of the Bengals re-signing a player that Marvin Lewis appeared to have moved on from, Chris Henry, even with the team's mounting injuries at wideout.

I wanted to present this salient, close-to-the-heart perspective from a big Bengals fan that he wrote to me this morning. I thought he made some good points:

As a 28-year season ticket holder (yup that’s right – a lot of pain), I do not applaud this move. It will not get me to drop my tickets (22 total with my brother), but it certainly makes me question what is going on. For the record, and you now may not know this, but their best hope for a 3rd receiver – Marcus Maxwell went down late in yesterday’s practice with a torn muscle. They are estimating him to miss at a minimum the first month of the season and possibly more.
 
We are the walking wounded right now (like last year). This move however, makes Mike Brown look like a genius. My only concern is the affect it may have on the players perception of Marvin Lewis – he was definitely over-ridden on this issue by Brown. But lets make no mistakes its Browns team just like any other owner. I remember Bill Parcells got over-ridden by the owner on his first round draft pick in 1996 with New England when they picked Terry Glenn. He wanted a d-lineman. Glenn went on to have one of the best rookie seasons ever and the Pats went to the SB losing to Green Bay. Plus Jerry Jones over-rode him in bringing in T.O in Dallas.
 
Hopefully all works out but if not,  the dust that has somewhat settled will turn into a tornado.
 
Mark A. Bollin
Cincinnati, Ohio

And now a trivia question for those who have made it this far: Who was the player Parcells wanted to take over Glenn and where did that player eventually get drafted? (I realized this could test someone's Googling skills more than their football knowledge, but it's a fun bit of history.)

Maybe I'll throw the winner some small prize ... respond in the comments section below, please. 

He's not quite being Team Obliterator in doing so, but you have to question the wisdom of Terrell Owens making comments about the Cowboys' gameplan in the playoff loss to the Giants seven months ago. As in, January.

What he is saying might be true, but it's not helping much. I have watched the game several times now, and I feel like Owens' high-ankle sprain was giving him problems in the second half. He caught all his passes -- four for 49 yards and a TD -- in the first half, when he appeared to have more spring in his step. But as the game wore on, I saw a guy lacking explosion off the line and an extra step to separate downfield. Maybe it's just me.

The Giants might have suckered the Cowboys into their preference of having them run more often, but the Cowboys had success on the ground. You can't really blame them for sticking with it. In the first half, they ran the ball 20 times for 113 yards (5.7 avg.) and threw it 14 times for a total of 82 (5.8 avg.). Clearly, running the ball was getting it done; passing was a mixed bag. In the second half, they ran it 13 times for 41 yards (3.2 avg.) and threw it 22 times, netting 119 yards (5.4 avg.).

Tony Romo threw the ball in Owens' direction 11 times that game -- seven in the first half, four in the second. According to STATS, Inc., Owens was "targeted" (meaning the ball was thrown in his direction) 144 times in 15 regular-season games, and for argument's sake, we'll call that 15th game a half game because he was injured in the second quarter of the Panthers game. So that means Romo threw Owens the ball an average of 10 times per game last season before the playoffs.

Ten passes is kind of the industry standard for an elite receiver for a game. Randy Moss got 10 a game in the regular season. So did Reggie Wayne and Braylon Edwards. Andre Johnson, too. Romo threw in Owens' direction 11 times in the playoff loss. I'm just saying ...

So in addition to having poor timing and verbal-editing skills, Owens suffers from selective memory. Sure, at least two of the three fourth-quarter balls Romo throw Owens' way were in the desperation category, or at least the low-percentage one. Still, that doesn't negate the fact that the guy caught oh-for-four attempts in the second half and appeared hindered by his ankle.

And we haven't even mentioned the fact that Owens bringing up old stuff probably has little in terms of productive, constructive addition for this year's club. 

Not to ruin anyone's excitement for the regular season, but we have a wide range of quarterback matchups for the first week of games: from very good to somewhat awful. Of course, there are a few things not set in stone. Here's a look at how things could look Week One:

(Addendum: Updated with Orton named as Bears' starter.)

From what I saw of the Panthers-Eagles game last night in Philly, there wasn't much in the way of quality football to watch. But I think both teams are going to win more games than they did a year ago. At least two more games apiece, maybe three.

That means the Eagles would go at least 10-6, maybe 11-5. And the Panthers would go 9-7 or 10-6. Sure, I can see that.

Both teams improved their rosters, sure, but more than that I think there will be a breakout veteran on each club. QB Donovan McNabb and DE Julius Peppers are bona-fide stars, but neither had career seasons last year. McNabb was OK; Peppers had by far his worst season.

That said, I get the feeling that the positive vibes that have been streaming out of Lehigh and Wofford, respectively, are good indications that both men could have their best seasons to date.

It will take a lot of things going the right way for McNabb to best his 2004 numbers, and he doesn't have a Terrell Owens-quality receiver on the roster, but he has a lot of options at running back, receiver and tight end to make the Eagles a tough team to defend.

Peppers, meanwhile, has been making mincemeat of the Panthers' offensive linemen ever since coming to camp and switching to right tackle. He has made those jaw-dropping, did-he-just-do-what-think moves that we have seen in the past but not last season.

I don't know, of course, but I get the feeling that the Eagles and Panthers will be in the playoffs this season -- and hey, maybe they'll face off against each other again, who knows?

No offense to the Bears' tremendous tradition, but as someone who lives in Chicago -- yet has no strong rooting interest for any of the local teams -- I must admit I am a little surprised at the franchise's new campaign that brands the Bears with the following slogan:

"One city. One team."

Not that the Bears aren't a hot topic around here most of the year, but the Chicago Cubs -- they are still in first place, are they not? -- might have a little something to say about that "one team" business.

I understand that the Bears are the one football club here in town, but it's not as if there isn't a way to take this in a different light if you live here and root for multiple teams with equal fervor. It's far from offensive, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

Here's the official release from the Bears:

 

BEARS LAUNCH “ONE CITY. ONE TEAM.” BRAND CAMPAIGN

LAKE FOREST, IL — The Chicago Bears announced the launch of a new brand campaign featuring the special bond between the city, team and its fans.  The “One City. One Team.” brand initiative kicks off Saturday night during the Bears/Seahawks preseason game on WFLD-TV beginning at 8 pm Chicago time.

Bears fans take a starring role alongside players and Head Coach Lovie Smith as the campaign focuses on the passion exhibited throughout all aspects of Bears football.  To enhance the authenticity, fans were chosen over actors or models throughout the majority of the campaign.  The Bears selected advertising agency Two by Four to lead the creative process.

“We feel it is important to let our fans and business partners know they are a part of our team and we appreciate the unbelievable support they provide every year,” Bears President and CEO Ted Phillips said. 

The brand campaign is scheduled to be featured on outdoor mediums (billboards, buses and bus shelters) beginning August 18, television beginning August 16, on-line beginning August 18 and radio beginning August 28.  All aspects of the campaign will be available for public viewing on ChicagoBears.com beginning Monday, August 18.

This year’s brand campaign is an extension of the year-round opportunities offered to Bears fans.  In addition to the programming provided during the football season, the Chicago Bears host events throughout the offseason and maintain an interactive website where fans are able to enjoy unparalleled access to the team.

I wrote about the dissolving romance between Packers fans and Brett Favre right after the trade with the Jets, and since then I have talked to a few friends who pull for the Wisconsin trade. They, like the rest of you, were sick of hearing about the Favre story, but it doesn't mean that they hate their former quarterback or don't want things to work out in some way for him.

As one friend put it, "It wasn't until I saw him on the sidelines in Cleveland for that preseason game that it really sunk in that he'd be playing with another team."

Well, Packers fans, ambivalent or not, you can watch your former star play a few games this season if you live in Wisconsin. It's clear that Packers fans, as much as this story hurt their pride, still love their QB and are willing to watch him play in another team's uniform. Either that or a Milwaukee-area TV station is going to lose money carrying some Jets games. 

Running backs and linebackers are historically the best bets to win the Rookie of the Year.

Since Reuben Mayes won Offensive Rookie of the Year for the Saints in 1986, 17 of the 22 winners have been runners, though three of the past five winners have been non-running backs (Anquan Boldin, Ben Roethlisberger, Vince Young). On defense, a linebacker has won seven of the past Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.

There are plenty of good rookie RB candidates, though linebacker is a bit thin this year. With that in mind, here are some early candidates:

Offense

1. Raiders RB Darren McFadden: Right now, he's the clear favorite, even though Justin Fargas and others figure to get carries. But there's a sense in Oakland that he's the team's best offensive player and could be special in short order.

2. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart: He still has a painful toe he must overcome, and DeAngelo Williams has had a strong camp and will start. Stewart might not get the majority of the carries, but he will be a big part of the offense nonetheless.

3. Titans RB Chris Johnson: I try not to get too biased based on one highlight, but you can see why the team is excited by his potential when you watch Johnson's 66-yard romp against the Rams. He'll have some highlight plays, but he must prove to be durable and take the big hits.

4. Bills WR James Hardy: The Bills' offense still needs some help in spots, but Hardy has been a strong performer in camp and has shown the ability to run down the field and catch passes in traffic and the red zone. He's big and fast, and if he can keep his nose clean and stay focused, Hardy might be a very good rookie.

5. Lions RB Kevin Smith: All signs point to him starting right away, but all signs point to some tough sledding right away. The Lions' O-line hasn't run-blocked well in the preseason, and the strength of the team remains at wideout. Smith could be a slow starter but a strong finisher.

Others to watch: Falcons QB Matt Ryan; Ravens QB Joe Flacco; Jets TE Dustin Keller; Broncos WR Eddie Royal; 49ers WR Josh Morgan; Redskins WR Malcolm Kelly; Eagles WR DeSean Jackson; Panthers OT Jeff Otah; Broncos OT Ryan Clady; Bears RB Matt Forté; Ravens RB Ray Rice; Cowboys RB Felix Jones

Defense

1. Patriots LB Jerod Mayo: Observers in New England feel there's no way the Patriots can keep him out of the starting lineup, and he'll be in a position to rack up tackles. We might not be talking about a Patrick Willis-type stats machine here, but on a winning team Mayo should stand up as a favorite.

2. Chiefs DT Glenn Dorsey: He has been hurt so far in camp, but he's a guaranteed starter when healthy and one of the five most talented rookies in the league. If the Chiefs' defense shows marked improvement, many will point to Dorsey's presence as a major reason even if tackles don't rack up big numbers typically.

3. Giants FS Kenny Phillips: They are raving about Phillips' range and closing speed up in Albany, and he should be considered a starter any minute now. Tom Coughlin might not admit it, but he got a steal in the draft. How rare -- and fortunate -- is it to see a Super Bowl winner get a Rookie of the Year candidate this good the next year?

4. Saints DT Sedrick Ellis: Some of the same reasons that Dorsey could get mention in Kansas City certainly apply to Ellis in New Orleans. The Saints' defense is expected t improve, and a division title could go a long way towards getting individual attention for a tackle of Ellis' ability. And vice versa.

5. Bengals LB Keith Rivers: He was a late signee, but Rivers stepped in right away and looked strong against the Packers' second- and third-stringers. Expect Rivers to be an opening-day starter and put up moderately strong numbers on what I think will be a better defense.

Others to watch: Rams DE Chris Long; Seahawks DE Lawrence Jackson; Dolphins DE Kendall Langford; Falcons LB Curtis Lofton; Bills CB Leodis McKelvin; Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers